TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$525,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$537,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $525,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No35c59,464$20,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,862.213,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No18c37,888$6,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,095.684228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No21c33,866$7,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,616.1219153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No19c32,098$6,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,999.661656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2746…f918backed Yes52c21,572$11,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,217.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No19c17,025$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,860.186251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No19c12,973$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,509.53333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No19c12,082$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,786.175954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed No38c10,938$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,757.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Yes74c10,722$7,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,929.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+84.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes65c10,500$6,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7952737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Yes53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3003119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No19c9,915$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,001.7776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked No19c9,791$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,931.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…66b9backed Yes76c8,095$6,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,152.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes45c7,945$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,605.812,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed No42c7,882$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,534.855347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes1c6,584$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.686010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes3c6,550$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.99450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+33.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes57c5,999$3,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.478637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e25…96a6backed Yes80c5,986$4,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No19c5,880$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,762.764524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes76c5,500$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.93773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes43c5,094$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.7323842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed No19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.982339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.842630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked No18c4,998$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.863141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No18c4,934$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,045.662218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No40c4,871$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.6222669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4063…0c2bbacked Yes53c4,540$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No33c4,367$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.013534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes58c3,601$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.4222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Yes53c3,043$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked No22c2,787$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.136451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcac4…bf62backed Yes63c2,306$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No21c2,050$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.57111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Yes67c1,940$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Yes53c1,895$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.4875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes79c1,863$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.713650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes66c1,805$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.2621041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No18c1,749$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.914846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…2665backed Yes58c1,736$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…ee32backed Yes80c1,700$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No35c1,620$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.8210347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x195a…b307backed Yes63c1,581$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes73c1,575$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.42540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes76c1,500$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14012651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No20c1,443$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.7244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb263…6275backed Yes70c1,423$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked No21c1,383$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed No19c1,330$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No29c1,316$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.993339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No19c1,291$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.717758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed No21c1,269$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.4410150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No19c1,253$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.6715024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eee…d930backed Yes77c1,188$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.49683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed No18c1,030$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.61233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Yes80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x736f…d0c5backed Yes80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15bc…5023backed Yes80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52b…b156backed No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb125…69ebbacked No20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8003420.6%7 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02dd…d213backed Yes67c992.93$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed No46c948.83$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No27c912$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ba32backed Yes7c897.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No19c876$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.562250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes41c841.46$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3452650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes26c822$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes55c806.58$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Yes52c777$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.041428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No17c767.9$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.3623046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd930…2787backed Yes80c759.16$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35a6…ab4dbacked Yes52c750.58$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.31764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+106.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No18c699.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.997423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b32…8166backed Yes77c691.24$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes43c674.42$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…3418backed Yes76c659.43$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Yes52c651$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.522254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Yes77c649.62$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75fc…ee34backed Yes78c641.03$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e46…6b55backed Yes78c640.55$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes80c600$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes68c599.89$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf430…675abacked Yes69c598.59$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.361464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No20c579$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.24252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked Yes52c575.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No18c560$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.210942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7101…cf3dbacked Yes55c552.93$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…b061backed Yes77c549.87$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No20c503.96$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.7434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2608459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37515847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes75c458.81$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.111968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Yes79c456$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Yes73c413.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed No21c409.58$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.973050%15 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No20c402.6$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.081947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.