TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,325 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes30c12,322$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,662.373,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3b…4253backed No4c8,551$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed No57c8,000$4,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,569.782737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Yes13c3,463$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,012.523141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No76c3,115$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.0219153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed No58c2,957$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.595347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes14c2,923$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.664924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c2,672$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.352,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No18c2,352$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.9123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf7…9189backed Yes48c2,094$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Yes13c1,074$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes13c999.53$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.5915024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes26c978.71$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+106.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No38c720$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.622332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No51c476.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1641…495dbacked Yes20c459.79$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+146.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6859…3308backed Yes22c454.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a5…baddbacked No75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No10c397$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3128241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c5e…615cbacked Yes28c362.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+81.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ae…8bf3backed No75c350$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Yes14c347.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+269.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes28c342.13$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4651136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed No61c333.6$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.083050%15 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No66c329.87$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21940%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes28c320$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.42540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a75…ed14backed Yes39c312.82$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.821010%1 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick41cpaid-74.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes13c307.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.6910057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes22c295.45$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed No72c282$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Yes12c258.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.42025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed No73c240.5$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.062240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes19c225$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes13c215.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.382462.5%15 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick67cpaid+13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad9…65d7backed Yes13c207.69$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+416.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes14c200$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.279721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x716d…eaf2backed Yes14c198$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+117%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Yes25c197.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.023930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes41c196.42$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…9780backed Yes17c196.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+146.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes16c190.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8610150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes55c184$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.961947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcece…8c50backed Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9493…7988backed No56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.84443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d13…8cabbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No62c163$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.48870.5%62 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eabacked Yes25c160.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No63c152.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked Yes13c126$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.621020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Yes15c120$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+321.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Yes43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aef…9d05backed Yes14c113.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+118.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b5…7d0cbacked Yes28c108.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+263.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeac5…7960backed Yes14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.141050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed Yes38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.261392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes13c105$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3533945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c90…9d02backed Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9833…3f04backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d80…a151backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afe…7d52backed Yes49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Yes33c81.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd9…cbffbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849a…a6a1backed Yes39c73.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5916…f785backed Yes55c72.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd2…f9aebacked Yes28c72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2219…a5e9backed Yes16c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No74c66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1344655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3170…a9dfbacked Yes28c64.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.651050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa149…61cbbacked Yes31c64.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+220.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…3418backed Yes30c63.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a6…8924backed Yes41c60.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+68.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes80c60.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed Yes30c55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef56…618cbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf1…981dbacked No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes26c46.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+83.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x135c…968fbacked Yes52c40.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1dd…376abacked Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…09e2backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Yes44c38.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed No77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.351050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fc…38aabacked Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.