TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-08?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes7c10,100$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7077111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No62c9,863$6,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,772.6719153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed No44c9,550$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,389.875347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…8603backed Yes8c9,436$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed No32c8,819$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,979.733246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No59c5,863$3,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.992,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes17c5,716$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.4722332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Yes78c3,848$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked Yes68c3,690$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Yes6c3,374$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.783141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Yes6c3,119$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.13520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes11c2,729$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2222669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Yes75c2,639$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf7…9189backed Yes7c2,605$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x058d…bbabbacked Yes10c2,600$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes5c2,203$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3119347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes6c1,999$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1110128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcce…099fbacked Yes7c1,935$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No61c1,831$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.373,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes10c1,500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes55c1,279$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…ef00backed Yes75c1,194$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes11c1,063$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204017.5%7 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90dd…d4f8backed Yes7c1,055$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1641…495dbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+146.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc654…e657backed Yes65c999.99$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b9…3390backed Yes6c999.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes7c999.51$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9715024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes24c881.83$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes9c879.15$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.126010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes10c860.13$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.261947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Yes7c814.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No50c810.09$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0b…75c4backed Yes13c789.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes67c767$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.3528241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x318c…1a2abacked Yes8c762$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb7…95b2backed Yes8c720$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b8…5cf9backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Yes6c650$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes5c648.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.457423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No60c600.09$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7344749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Yes77c600$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4622142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf301…dd70backed Yes38c600$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No49c579.7$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9710347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes73c572.11$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Yes14c570.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes17c565.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.532240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e4…2c4ebacked Yes10c506.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes67c500.11$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed Yes70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9493…7988backed No78c499.98$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes76c460$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes5c455.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf536…e40cbacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f5…1757backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed No31c364.53$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.522254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b31…15c7backed Yes11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cc…3ea3backed Yes9c330$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd2…b69abacked Yes66c319.68$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2b…8434backed Yes9c317.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-77.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes66c303.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes72c299$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.282540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed No33c283.09$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.332737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a51…f6d4backed Yes7c282.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc72b…3756backed No78c282$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…b7bebacked No35c280.8$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes72c274.64$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.749856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4afe…7d52backed Yes70c269.12$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes76c245$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes50c235$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes15c222.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.228852.3%46 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes19c209.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.471421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-70.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes10c195.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.169721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…c04ebacked Yes9c193.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154c…658ebacked Yes7c188.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…c2dabacked Yes16c186.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d7…5487backed Yes7c182.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes61c175.47$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde0…20aabacked Yes7c175$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b21…1c38backed No80c173.41$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes6c167$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0224322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf64…92bdbacked No37c162.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.163467.6%23 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes18c158.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5810150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331d…cd0cbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes12c142.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes77c136.84$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.272544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a5b…aeecbacked Yes11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…8f90backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102763%17 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff1…073fbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3e…1726backed Yes69c120$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.830%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes21c117.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+83.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2677…533cbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked No79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef56…618cbacked Yes74c97.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a90…e630backed Yes24c84.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3864…857fbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1083…3b83backed Yes31c75.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.