TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,467,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,636,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,467,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed No71c481,499$343,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,216.6663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes7c417,313$27,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,643.9811210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe264…7a75backed Yes19c364,269$67,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,401.91625%4 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes5c300,000$15,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,790.28520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf523…3f69backed Yes20c289,836$59,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,348.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes7c208,386$13,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,578.71659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b3…ed67backed Yes1c207,149$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,032.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc714…f955backed Yes12c182,769$21,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,336.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…657fbacked Yes51c178,219$91,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,152.043240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No64c175,212$112,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,612.234934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes1c162,797$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.852910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8a…e4cdbacked Yes15c151,865$23,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,513.56110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes5c150,240$8,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,005.798010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed No74c132,281$98,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,971.9835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No68c119,094$80,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,354.6687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b87…d95cbacked No69c116,587$81,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,560.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe779…87e0backed No23c92,361$21,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,347.271163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+58.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes2c89,928$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.26160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07ca…a694backed No57c87,591$49,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,037.441163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe0f…9cbbbacked No76c84,445$64,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,912.81475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfd…bd9dbacked No23c76,771$18,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,747.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+113%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No70c75,478$53,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,323.7711554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b01…b089backed Yes11c73,038$8,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,322.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c71,076$55,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,263.917327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes27c70,601$18,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,989.581020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d2…90abbacked No74c69,435$51,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,934.871080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c68,120$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.5718315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52db…8abbbacked Yes4c66,250$2,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No40c65,357$26,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,192.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f2…6086backed Yes25c61,748$15,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,55520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1394…91f5backed Yes33c61,420$19,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,971.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No37c58,936$22,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,886.525034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c7…a2febacked No75c57,302$42,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,449.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No34c56,972$19,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,481.8922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Yes54c53,985$29,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,109.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+92.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…4fb9backed No78c53,352$41,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,843.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc972…ad10backed Yes5c50,894$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…eed5backed Yes44c50,810$22,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,206.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c50,055$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.41488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c7…a347backed Yes20c49,909$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes71c48,000$33,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,967.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8d…2d03backed Yes65c47,914$30,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,997425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2424…3b61backed No18c47,716$8,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,127.13520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…62e0backed No48c45,752$21,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,765.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd33…2aadbacked Yes15c45,014$6,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,731.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed No65c44,550$28,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,587.841050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc0…4de2backed Yes3c42,817$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c42,789$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.051015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76f…0767backed Yes10c42,057$4,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,205.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…0234backed Yes17c41,843$6,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,904.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f72…2d20backed No23c41,553$9,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,996.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…82cfbacked No55c41,387$22,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,445.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3283…1da9backed Yes63c41,035$26,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,022.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes54c40,087$21,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,718.7412431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes5c40,049$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-85.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Yes45c39,879$17,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,860.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd9…cda3backed No52c38,518$19,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,641.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c37,022$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.071070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes4c36,432$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.64500%0 W · 50 L-9.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8db6…09dabacked No14c34,434$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,573.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.28per pick29cpaid+108.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes1c33,829$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked Yes52c33,729$17,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,660.143138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6379…a7dcbacked No70c33,475$23,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,180.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa944…461abacked Yes3c33,314$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a18…43b3backed Yes59c33,100$19,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,46050%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff01…73ccbacked No65c32,741$21,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,578.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed No32c31,532$9,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,541.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick39cpaid+150.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c27…59dabacked Yes15c31,530$4,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed Yes25c31,496$7,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,963.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd89e…cd94backed Yes1c31,351$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a40…6a8bbacked Yes2c31,310$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca4c…efddbacked No32c30,963$9,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,043.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x978c…3afabacked Yes36c30,362$10,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,946.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98c3…b28dbacked No34c29,564$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,564.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6212…322cbacked Yes3c29,420$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes45c28,527$12,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,765.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa622…7bb6backed Yes20c27,528$5,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,501.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No56c25,794$14,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,314.011580%12 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+30.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe0ef…31a0backed Yes66c25,546$16,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,7931020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No76c25,000$19,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,980771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…c355backed No41c24,341$9,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,370.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…c666backed Yes45c24,142$10,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,962.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7915…a329backed Yes5c24,094$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.1714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc302…f388backed Yes12c23,762$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9402326.1%6 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+221.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb544…c84fbacked Yes39c23,469$9,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,189.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes7c23,378$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.29234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fb7…6ff7backed Yes29c23,288$6,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,732.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No59c22,568$13,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,233.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-57.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked No31c22,200$6,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,303.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…2bd5backed Yes3c22,091$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd0…64e9backed Yes22c22,081$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,821.291533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes2c22,058$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.017018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Yes14c21,880$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes72c21,729$15,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,737.892850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes4c21,659$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.973917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes23c20,997$4,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,827.621136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+85.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe328…9f4abacked Yes60c20,868$12,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,498.965925.4%15 W · 44 L-12.2wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xc2ca…e881backed No46c20,810$9,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,295.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4355…9682backed Yes54c20,763$11,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,239.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.