TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,745,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,381,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,745,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 579 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe264…7a75backed Yes22c180,320$39,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,048.481625%4 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c130,089$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.748010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c111,755$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc714…f955backed Yes16c100,432$16,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,418.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes15c100,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c70,290$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.721488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a3…e203backed Yes11c69,963$7,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,907.471315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa853…da85backed No80c50,904$40,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,259.571883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff81…eed5backed Yes18c50,490$8,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,887.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9043…8b7bbacked Yes1c46,940$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.3970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd9…f79bbacked Yes9c46,660$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd3…94edbacked No75c37,929$28,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,450.615100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes10c29,270$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked No80c24,225$19,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,886.79966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa722…7762backed Yes17c23,216$3,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,942.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7a…2966backed Yes12c21,562$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.960%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Yes9c21,305$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.21966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa53d…b9edbacked Yes13c21,275$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,672.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a47…aa53backed Yes7c21,189$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.44415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes9c21,065$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.221513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc302…f388backed Yes8c20,916$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.712326.1%6 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+221.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7133…438abacked Yes12c20,311$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.01137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc221…92a8backed Yes26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe300…8a97backed Yes12c17,815$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,208.6980%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c16,366$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.941070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226a…3e38backed Yes4c16,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ee…894bbacked Yes13c16,000$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c16,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c14,975$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.751015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b30…76f4backed Yes17c14,820$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.7760%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58bc…a883backed Yes7c14,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3917…7adbbacked Yes18c13,595$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50070%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No77c13,563$10,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,068.1522216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No76c13,427$10,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,227.691752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes4c13,404$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.833315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbfc…9af6backed Yes9c13,379$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa6…434ebacked Yes23c13,133$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5869…d117backed Yes15c12,768$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4054…e6ccbacked Yes8c12,036$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b149backed Yes9c11,992$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2708…505bbacked No76c11,550$8,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.378100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c11,412$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.26659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bad…4ee8backed Yes15c11,056$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.85128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcce7…c129backed Yes10c10,659$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes13c10,653$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.88248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b8…f893backed Yes14c10,451$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c10,304$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7608…ab97backed Yes21c10,214$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,09950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafcc…4b8bbacked Yes3c10,181$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes6c10,147$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.07280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ec…a6d9backed Yes10c10,000$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.2690%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x209b…fef0backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf928…0841backed Yes0c9,920$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fe…73efbacked Yes2c9,834$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44bf…ea02backed Yes10c9,510$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes12c9,146$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.477619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2d…aef6backed Yes16c8,876$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6e…482bbacked Yes12c8,725$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No77c8,674$6,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a4…aa4dbacked Yes0c8,571$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb81f…a0f5backed Yes6c8,003$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ca…94cbbacked Yes1c7,598$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e5…25eebacked Yes0c7,485$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf52…29b7backed Yes16c7,353$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes12c7,000$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.64432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes10c6,466$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.252020%4 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Yes7c6,373$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93e5…fe80backed Yes15c6,326$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x244f…266ebacked Yes14c6,315$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.0760%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes16c6,250$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce7…6c15backed Yes0c6,197$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668f…0066backed Yes21c6,092$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6886…84b9backed Yes2c6,086$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c1…b554backed Yes0c6,040$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15db…c17cbacked Yes13c6,000$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875a…4290backed Yes15c6,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-86.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf56…287abacked No77c6,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4004100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8747…1010backed Yes10c5,984$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa32d…d8cebacked No79c5,846$4,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d7…8e0dbacked Yes8c5,693$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb988…6b4bbacked Yes0c5,133$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d8…ff3bbacked Yes0c5,033$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68bd…290fbacked Yes14c5,000$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc02d…2695backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf716…e1a1backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa1f8…5854backed Yes24c4,957$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes19c4,930$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-76.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd935…6029backed Yes0c4,583$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked No80c4,500$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9202142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e85…8030backed No79c4,489$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.77366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes10c4,445$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.483915.4%6 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3425…84a6backed Yes11c4,400$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb3…af2abacked Yes16c4,344$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xface…0572backed Yes22c4,315$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf1…7387backed Yes17c4,230$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d2…4e2dbacked No80c4,200$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f36…c6d2backed Yes8c4,167$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.