Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad9107c82737d1be8f5a5119a5cd582423f126e8884c78c53ac687699c4bc668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $543,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 1c | 210,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 29c | 48,070$13,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,220.01 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 76c | 33,050$25,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,117 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 60c | 23,828$14,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,376.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…c594backed Yes | 43c | 13,889$5,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,973.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 8,800$5,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,632 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…ab99backed Yes | 65c | 6,619$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…b87cbacked No | 76c | 6,547$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…feefbacked No | 9c | 4,218$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 36c | 3,500$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 64c | 2,836$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.27 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…a160backed No | 40c | 2,523$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 25c | 2,429$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 62c | 2,372$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.38 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 35c | 1,903$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 39c | 1,377$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.95 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…1063backed Yes | 67c | 1,150$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 43c | 1,018$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.06 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd21…efdbbacked Yes | 53c | 999$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.53 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 55c | 950$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…b63bbacked Yes | 28c | 887.29$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.67 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 76c | 878.13$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…3128backed Yes | 57c | 877$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 49c | 744.67$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 705.84$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.83 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed No | 31c | 690.61$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 666$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2554…3ef8backed No | 61c | 657.62$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 68c | 629.68$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…1e6cbacked No | 35c | 510$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 62c | 403$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…0557backed No | 64c | 378.99$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…1573backed No | 52c | 267.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…31aebacked No | 39c | 253.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 30c | 222$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 56c | 204$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…8d31backed Yes | 51c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…e104backed No | 80c | 193.61$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 36c | 190$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…7925backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…1929backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…2a3bbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…8026backed No | 75c | 148.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…9858backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 78c | 133$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…8159backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7f…1698backed Yes | 35c | 103.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…fb90backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 35c | 93.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 34c | 79.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…0711backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…b2cdbacked No | 80c | 64.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 43c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed No | 48c | 59.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 62c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 68c | 54.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…d19bbacked No | 39c | 50.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…70a3backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked No | 78c | 39.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…2144backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 40c | 32.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…c925backed Yes | 72c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…6cb8backed Yes | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…54cdbacked Yes | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.