Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2688412dbb15d62fdf0257598665870343847a902add909a7e95a373870598b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,913,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,913,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,913,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 62,782$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.32 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…9a69backed Yes | 1c | 62,500$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 36,780$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.03 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 33,806$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes | 2c | 32,966$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 29,307$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…80aabacked Yes | 2c | 29,304$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed Yes | 1c | 27,884$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 25,943$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 25,145$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,649$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.89 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…e26bbacked Yes | 2c | 22,915$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,888$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…fb0bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…9f05backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ee…1b9dbacked Yes | 2c | 15,662$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c3…37a3backed Yes | 0c | 15,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…1f7fbacked Yes | 3c | 15,052$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…6e8cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,575$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…e94fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…6e39backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0400…dc00backed Yes | 0c | 13,910$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…4977backed Yes | 0c | 13,645$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…3dd4backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…55d2backed Yes | 0c | 12,995$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…85edbacked Yes | 0c | 12,885$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…dbd5backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…b0fbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,064$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…d844backed Yes | 0c | 11,995$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…1d11backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 10,828$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.52 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…acbdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…809dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…c226backed Yes | 3c | 8,875$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.71 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…68e0backed Yes | 3c | 8,570$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…5edfbacked Yes | 2c | 8,291$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +394.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 6c | 8,047$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.96 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…8976backed Yes | 4c | 7,687$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…7922backed Yes | 0c | 7,309$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,925$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes | 5c | 6,524$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…0aa4backed Yes | 1c | 6,385$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,274$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 9c | 5,758$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…9785backed Yes | 0c | 5,150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d0…22e2backed Yes | 6c | 5,114$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 1c | 5,063$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1139…0471backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…f89cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…462cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,883$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…b056backed Yes | 2c | 4,734$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…c7c3backed Yes | 6c | 4,591$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eff…bc8fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,032$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,009$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4054…3442backed Yes | 1c | 3,919$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,917$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…46fabacked Yes | 4c | 3,598$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,571$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,521$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,453$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…4f07backed Yes | 2c | 3,170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…7137backed Yes | 1c | 3,104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,063$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 3,028$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…742ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,727$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…d5afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,648$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 3c | 2,498$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 2c | 2,496$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,304$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…237cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,270$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c4…8b9abacked Yes | 1c | 2,234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5473…b0e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,164$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…518fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…1ceabacked Yes | 3c | 1,904$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…9e5cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,777$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 1c | 1,702$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 2c | 1,585$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 2c | 1,585$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 2c | 1,464$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 1c | 1,437$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…01fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,351$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…80aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 4c | 1,348$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c1…5ae5backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…9420backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,084$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…e22fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,013$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa441…cf3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.