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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,913,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,913,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,913,039 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c62,782$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.3218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Yes1c62,500$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62390%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c36,780$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.03659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c33,806$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.721488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes2c32,966$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.212321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c29,307$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.031070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f7…80aabacked Yes2c29,304$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ee…0752backed Yes1c27,884$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes1c25,943$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.453611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c25,145$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.291360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes1c23,649$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.893724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd6…e26bbacked Yes2c22,915$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c19,888$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…fb0bbacked Yes0c16,105$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe93a…9f05backed Yes0c16,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ee…1b9dbacked Yes2c15,662$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c3…37a3backed Yes0c15,125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d7…1f7fbacked Yes3c15,052$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb2…6e8cbacked Yes0c14,575$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc243…e94fbacked Yes0c14,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…6e39backed Yes0c14,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0400…dc00backed Yes0c13,910$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb7…4977backed Yes0c13,645$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6c…3dd4backed Yes0c13,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb19…55d2backed Yes0c12,995$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc423…85edbacked Yes0c12,885$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca6…dbd5backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6d…b0fbbacked Yes0c12,064$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4010…d844backed Yes0c11,995$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…1d11backed Yes0c11,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes4c10,828$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.5225824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd95b…acbdbacked Yes1c10,016$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94eb…809dbacked Yes3c10,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-85.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes3c8,875$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.713315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e7…68e0backed Yes3c8,570$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…5edfbacked Yes2c8,291$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+394.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes6c8,047$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9622216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5285…8976backed Yes4c7,687$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfae…7922backed Yes0c7,309$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,925$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.751,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes5c6,524$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43bd…0aa4backed Yes1c6,385$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53220%0 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c6,274$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.098010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed Yes9c5,758$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a0…9785backed Yes0c5,150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d0…22e2backed Yes6c5,114$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked Yes1c5,063$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1139…0471backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…f89cbacked Yes6c5,000$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.821560%9 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa164…462cbacked Yes2c4,883$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe590…b056backed Yes2c4,734$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97f6…c7c3backed Yes6c4,591$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eff…bc8fbacked Yes1c4,032$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes4c4,009$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4054…3442backed Yes1c3,919$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c3,917$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.41431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes4c3,598$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.16200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes3c3,571$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.98342.9%1 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c3,521$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.761693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes2c3,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes3c3,453$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.931866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0022…4f07backed Yes2c3,170$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…7137backed Yes1c3,104$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,063$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.546785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c3,028$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.79940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes5c3,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd751…742ebacked Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…134dbacked Yes3c2,727$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…d5afbacked Yes2c2,648$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes3c2,498$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.611625%4 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes2c2,496$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.790%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes2c2,304$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.655111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c17…237cbacked Yes3c2,270$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.521747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22c4…8b9abacked Yes1c2,234$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce8…6414backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207042.9%30 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5473…b0e9backed Yes2c2,164$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aea…518fbacked Yes1c2,112$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4490…9bfdbacked Yes2c2,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30e…1ceabacked Yes3c1,904$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+122.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f1…9e5cbacked Yes1c1,777$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes1c1,702$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.488634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed Yes1c1,604$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.772412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes2c1,585$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.76508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes2c1,585$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.122339.1%9 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+155.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes4c1,500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4177…bbe4backed Yes2c1,464$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb803…b265backed Yes1c1,437$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes2c1,425$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes2c1,351$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x593e…80aabacked Yes3c1,350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes4c1,348$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c1…5ae5backed Yes2c1,300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b4…9420backed Yes2c1,100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…78c9backed Yes1c1,084$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…e22fbacked Yes1c1,013$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa441…cf3ebacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.