Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36e84c2a3ba876c119249ec65db871734fc99a4235bb54797b642d0a42029a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Yes | 68c | 52,868$35,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,965.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 61c | 43,075$26,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,653.16 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 39c | 35,675$13,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,779.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…64c2backed No | 40c | 24,996$9,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,998.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 38c | 15,000$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,679.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed No | 35c | 9,690$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…c594backed Yes | 69c | 9,410$6,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 41c | 2,950$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 1,986$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.56 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 32c | 1,532$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,501$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.13 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 37c | 1,478$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…c5f9backed Yes | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…bd10backed No | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…9497backed No | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…239ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked No | 34c | 1,032$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…73ccbacked No | 30c | 900$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 38c | 795.69$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 65c | 770$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…8150backed Yes | 68c | 731.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…6856backed No | 35c | 541.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 36c | 461$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 35c | 435.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…b63bbacked No | 32c | 317.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 30c | 310.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…d3f6backed No | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 39c | 247.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 34c | 217.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 210.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…2f8abacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed No | 28c | 164.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…de08backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1282…519abacked No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc421…a460backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…8fd0backed No | 36c | 141.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…0d3abacked No | 38c | 130.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…fe6fbacked Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 117$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 60c | 115.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…3e00backed No | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 68 | 10.3%7 W · 61 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…618abacked Yes | 68c | 94.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314f…a316backed Yes | 64c | 81.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…d08abacked No | 40c | 80.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…4c63backed Yes | 70c | 77.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked No | 38c | 74.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…ca1cbacked Yes | 69c | 68.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf832…d541backed Yes | 71c | 66.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…ea13backed No | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed No | 39c | 43.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…119cbacked No | 35c | 43.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 36c | 41.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…01f3backed No | 38c | 35.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 41c | 34.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5632backed Yes | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…ea27backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…7461backed Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…8705backed Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…3c60backed Yes | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…6b1bbacked Yes | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 61c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…d141backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc222…c512backed Yes | 62c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…5d12backed Yes | 63c | 18.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072c…d18fbacked Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…99e6backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.