Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d56032a70551b17890cf2b31d3ecbfae25e40a6ca48d60165bd0869b67ca74d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,572,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,624,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,572,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 935 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 48c | 213,040$103,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,971.59 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 57c | 167,407$94,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,487.94 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b87…d95cbacked No | 59c | 159,469$93,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,985.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…9cbbbacked No | 78c | 98,112$76,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,417.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 33c | 86,911$28,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,608.18 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…73ccbacked No | 34c | 75,058$25,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,148.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed Yes | 47c | 72,179$34,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,126 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…b09bbacked No | 16c | 66,418$10,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,859.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 52c | 61,902$32,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,062.83 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed No | 62c | 61,019$37,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,595.42 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…c594backed No | 44c | 46,274$20,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,180.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 45,314$30,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,179.12 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 76c | 44,636$34,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,566.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 57c | 39,134$22,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,114.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…2144backed No | 63c | 39,029$24,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,499.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…cda8backed No | 57c | 36,911$20,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,902 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 27c | 34,433$9,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,167.57 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 58c | 33,807$19,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,521.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…c7f7backed No | 2c | 32,489$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +534.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…f955backed Yes | 34c | 28,055$9,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,477.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…eed5backed Yes | 41c | 27,832$11,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,285.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 39c | 27,490$10,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,722.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…80fbbacked Yes | 29c | 27,463$8,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,375.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd21…efdbbacked Yes | 39c | 25,433$9,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,636.18 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 12c | 24,999$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 35c | 24,230$8,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,759.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb7…6ff7backed Yes | 31c | 22,965$7,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,823.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 62c | 22,750$14,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,101.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…78bcbacked No | 68c | 22,084$14,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,992.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3d…3fddbacked Yes | 37c | 22,073$8,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,906.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…3045backed No | 45c | 21,871$9,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,816.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…2d03backed Yes | 66c | 20,529$13,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 55c | 20,000$11,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,049.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 33c | 19,362$6,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,914.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 62c | 18,719$11,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,198.02 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 38c | 18,569$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…ec17backed Yes | 24c | 17,519$4,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,283.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 70c | 17,000$11,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,819.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked Yes | 39c | 16,460$6,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,088.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 51c | 15,932$8,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,753.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bb…fa42backed No | 21c | 15,356$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 29c | 14,747$4,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,292.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…8150backed No | 24c | 14,712$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 70c | 14,451$10,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,375.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…feefbacked No | 32c | 14,212$4,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,512.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 37c | 14,175$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,207.2 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 79c | 13,678$10,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,742.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…a694backed No | 75c | 13,640$10,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,260.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…3535backed No | 22c | 13,502$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…fa61backed No | 44c | 13,382$5,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,868.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 48c | 13,141$6,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,795.65 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa853…da85backed No | 65c | 13,126$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500.15 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…a7afbacked No | 34c | 13,119$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 23c | 13,060$3,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,003.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed No | 64c | 12,906$8,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,248.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…2e2ebacked No | 69c | 12,839$8,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,870.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 43c | 12,798$5,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,448.82 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 76c | 11,441$8,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 37c | 11,250$4,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,168.03 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…3b37backed Yes | 33c | 11,225$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,520.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ef…31a0backed Yes | 36c | 11,212$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,217.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…1858backed No | 16c | 10,675$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 55c | 10,472$5,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,708.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…d98bbacked No | 16c | 10,421$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed No | 30c | 10,194$3,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc404…1af8backed Yes | 39c | 10,110$3,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,118.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…7789backed Yes | 77c | 9,695$7,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 47c | 9,513$4,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,035.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c6…0bf8backed Yes | 26c | 9,435$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,996.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…233abacked Yes | 23c | 9,334$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,146.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fe…5d9ebacked Yes | 30c | 9,240$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,472.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 44c | 9,189$4,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,111.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcb…324dbacked No | 46c | 9,091$4,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,152.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed Yes | 42c | 8,655$3,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,045.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…65d8backed Yes | 31c | 8,500$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,866 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…ab7dbacked Yes | 69c | 8,404$5,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 15c | 8,244$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…b808backed No | 13c | 8,158$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 53c | 8,111$4,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 22c | 7,950$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…61ebbacked No | 77c | 7,743$5,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,940.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 33c | 7,542$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,059.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.60per pick | 23cpaid | +239.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb24b…f263backed No | 43c | 7,016$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 25c | 6,924$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,191.23 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 71c | 6,889$4,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,877.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 78c | 6,639$5,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…993dbacked No | 77c | 6,532$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 80c | 6,455$5,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.22 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…40f9backed Yes | 40c | 6,444$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Yes | 30c | 6,289$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,384.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 20c | 6,275$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.27 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 63c | 6,080$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.69 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…0ecfbacked Yes | 31c | 5,887$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,087.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2bfcbacked No | 32c | 5,872$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.29 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 67c | 5,804$3,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 29c | 5,798$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,116.65 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 5,763$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,755.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…833fbacked No | 77c | 5,571$4,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…c3d6backed Yes | 18c | 5,559$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,558.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 46c | 5,331$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,853.04 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -8.6wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.