Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7c9119d5e07b73140a6145b2032e7ecf6f0ca59d7ade84834a145a09e1d71f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,435,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,556,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,435,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a37…6984backed No | 1c | 222,222$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 56c | 162,696$91,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,460.29 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed No | 47c | 149,945$70,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,531.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 57c | 89,115$50,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,126.18 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 39c | 55,492$21,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,767.96 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…918cbacked No | 65c | 41,897$27,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,107.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 62c | 32,837$20,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,576.43 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 48c | 20,400$9,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,557.32 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 78c | 20,000$15,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,435.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 65c | 16,000$10,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,479.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 65c | 15,000$9,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,749.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…599fbacked No | 48c | 14,624$6,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,977.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…8e32backed No | 70c | 13,500$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,499.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 59c | 12,054$7,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,098.73 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 15c | 11,581$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.19 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes | 70c | 11,507$8,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,492.57 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed Yes | 78c | 11,110$8,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.75 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 39c | 11,097$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,770.37 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 41c | 11,036$4,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,576.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 68c | 8,303$5,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.34 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 22c | 8,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 37c | 7,523$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…ab51backed Yes | 76c | 6,576$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed No | 41c | 6,542$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed No | 69c | 6,259$4,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…f1d4backed No | 68c | 6,151$4,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,202.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 68c | 6,112$4,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,182.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…ea15backed Yes | 25c | 5,879$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…4612backed Yes | 35c | 5,681$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 80c | 5,475$4,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.61 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 5,231$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,192$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…a8c9backed No | 31c | 4,833$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No | 24c | 4,546$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.47 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 46c | 4,500$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 49c | 4,201$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.05 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed No | 29c | 4,036$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked No | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 80c | 3,816$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4f…7f8bbacked Yes | 42c | 3,800$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e4…668dbacked Yes | 54c | 3,649$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 41c | 3,574$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 26c | 3,490$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.16 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 51c | 3,100$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82e…f89cbacked Yes | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…f0cabacked Yes | 41c | 2,932$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,892$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.56 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 59c | 2,857$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.19 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…1a5bbacked No | 64c | 2,668$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked No | 79c | 2,538$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10cc…7660backed Yes | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f5…2a2ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,381$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 49c | 2,045$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.35 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 61c | 2,001$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.95 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 43c | 1,670$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.54 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…7d84backed Yes | 32c | 1,610$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…924bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,600$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…30aebacked Yes | 42c | 1,600$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…ee22backed No | 16c | 1,550$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…cda8backed Yes | 32c | 1,484$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,466$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.18 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…7d36backed No | 30c | 1,400$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…37edbacked No | 1c | 1,389$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed No | 48c | 1,377$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…39bebacked No | 73c | 1,373$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…288fbacked No | 77c | 1,338$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 25c | 1,337$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.6 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…7146backed Yes | 54c | 1,300$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…801cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,300$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Yes | 54c | 1,300$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4054…e6ccbacked Yes | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…b960backed No | 79c | 1,269$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…c67ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,200$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed No | 55c | 1,099$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…7bf0backed Yes | 34c | 1,047$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.06 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…db9cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,010$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…90dcbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…a2febacked No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…9585backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…05aabacked No | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.99 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 20c | 999.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…5f17backed Yes | 27c | 999.69$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706e…73d4backed Yes | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…8f62backed Yes | 53c | 955.75$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes | 53c | 941.55$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…689abacked No | 31c | 929.97$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…dd5ebacked No | 70c | 900$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…b056backed Yes | 39c | 888.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 30c | 862.02$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…b73abacked No | 12c | 862$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed No | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 63c | 800$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.