Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e731302e61491cc8aafbcfb77febb1fdd58ea1525737a01f5e763d29e4588e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,105,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,504,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,105,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 83,071$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.93 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 0c | 50,500$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 41c | 50,361$20,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,708.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb059…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 38,097$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 37,687$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,800$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…ab99backed Yes | 23c | 29,493$6,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,840.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 72c | 26,634$19,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,356.13 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…f771backed Yes | 3c | 22,170$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.7 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 20,852$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…46fabacked Yes | 2c | 20,634$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.82 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 76c | 19,633$14,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,768.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 17,985$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 4c | 15,996$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.65 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 78c | 15,799$12,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…36c4backed No | 75c | 13,850$10,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,422.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…2190backed Yes | 24c | 11,929$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,816.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51c…eedbbacked Yes | 1c | 11,413$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Yes | 0c | 11,298$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d92fbacked Yes | 11c | 10,712$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a29fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,540$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,464$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,089$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…cb51backed Yes | 0c | 9,520$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Yes | 7c | 8,396$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…bf14backed Yes | 0c | 7,510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…e5efbacked Yes | 13c | 7,029$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…6dc2backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 60c | 6,641$3,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…4edebacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,269$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…9fd7backed Yes | 1c | 4,482$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…c594backed No | 76c | 4,074$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d0…22e2backed Yes | 4c | 3,887$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…c226backed Yes | 2c | 3,861$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 10c | 3,773$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.65 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 64c | 3,696$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.5 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 3,510$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.71 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…f272backed Yes | 2c | 3,466$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes | 10c | 2,734$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,714$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 2c | 2,691$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…92cebacked Yes | 0c | 2,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…6ff7backed Yes | 0c | 2,502$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…a69abacked Yes | 0c | 2,502$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…e77fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,501$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…c245backed Yes | 0c | 2,501$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…2eadbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…e9f3backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…8c0abacked Yes | 41c | 2,425$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,393$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…3785backed Yes | 26c | 2,381$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 14c | 2,328$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 8c | 2,207$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…ceedbacked Yes | 2c | 2,142$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 7c | 2,092$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc28b…3a2abacked Yes | 2c | 2,084$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,058$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…3e79backed No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,996$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 15c | 1,938$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.79 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,870$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.27 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked No | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…68d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 17c | 1,434$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 67c | 1,300$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked No | 79c | 1,270$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 62c | 1,200$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 75c | 1,199$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3581…3c1bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,155$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…8d33backed Yes | 3c | 1,145$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 8c | 1,130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed No | 62c | 1,047$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…23ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,046$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…9837backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…de3abacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…4322backed No | 58c | 999.99$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…78d9backed No | 57c | 973.68$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 934.75$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.51 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 1c | 920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…0329backed Yes | 2c | 910.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed No | 77c | 908.22$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x318d…e4fdbacked Yes | 2c | 846.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…0e60backed Yes | 3c | 753.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Yes | 18c | 740.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…fca7backed Yes | 2c | 723$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed No | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 697.61$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…e69dbacked Yes | 10c | 652.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 65c | 633.96$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 76c | 627.05$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 611.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 12c | 610.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.