TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2755…5016

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$224.4
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$839Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$839.19
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+25%+$100
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+41.4%+$90.24
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,704Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$2,704
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$576
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,708Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.5%+$1,307.32
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+62.6%+$770
Ethereum all time high by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$415.11
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,164Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.9%+$3,631.61
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$899Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$299.71
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$5,306Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.4%+$4,692.42
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,519Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+31.6%+$479.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$2,640
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$1,400
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 3-9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+53.8%+$350
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 3-9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+26.6%+$210
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,199.97
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$2,900
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,199.77
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,765Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,765.44
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$275
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$370
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,250
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$7,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,400.04
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$220
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$136.74
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$179.47
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$612Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$611.91
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+33.3%+$500
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+455.6%+$820
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$359.99
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$42.78
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$560
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$7,263Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$7,263.38
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$800
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$7,100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+40.8%+$2,900
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$6,500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+53.8%+$3,500
Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$6,600
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$46,367Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+80.7%+$37,413.83
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23,752Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$7,322.81
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,242.4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20,129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,129.2
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$13,285Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,284.67
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20,373Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,372.92
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,648Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$2,801.08
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$135.12
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,579Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$618.15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+38.9%+$311.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,962Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,962.01
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,735Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,734.98
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$48.84
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$127.3
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$6,617Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+153.8%+$10,175.03
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,600
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,700Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$2,299.99
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$167.5
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$902.27
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.65
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$750
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$242
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,285Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+104.2%+$1,339.19
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,018.9
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,600
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$1,983.24
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,205.86
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$325.55
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$102.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$4,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$4,624.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,327Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,327.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.