Middle East · resolved market
Iran Nuke in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,523,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,639,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,523,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 10c | 37,903$3,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948.82 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 34,200$3,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,585.91 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…7ad2backed Yes | 17c | 29,379$4,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,966 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 17c | 27,388$4,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,597.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…2844backed Yes | 13c | 27,314$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 12c | 26,075$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.83 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 13c | 22,046$2,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.77 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…c3f9backed Yes | 13c | 14,855$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 15c | 14,383$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.31 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 13,161$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.85 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 15c | 13,130$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.67 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…47d0backed Yes | 11c | 12,468$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 12,147$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.63 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 11,800$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.59 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…29fcbacked Yes | 17c | 11,682$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 10c | 10,835$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 14c | 10,605$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.39 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f2c0backed Yes | 12c | 10,420$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 8c | 10,051$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.89 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…d998backed Yes | 20c | 9,880$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 14c | 9,262$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 14c | 7,972$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.08 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 16c | 7,149$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 15c | 6,900$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,783$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 12c | 6,503$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.28 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…aea9backed Yes | 24c | 6,196$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 14c | 6,105$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 17c | 6,005$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.79 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 13c | 5,883$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 5,785$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.6 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…1d68backed Yes | 17c | 5,778$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5d…1532backed Yes | 15c | 5,181$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 5,130$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.03 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes | 16c | 5,107$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes | 13c | 4,258$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…a908backed Yes | 17c | 4,006$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 12c | 3,934$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.03 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…c71bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,773$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57db…541bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,548$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 18c | 3,466$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 3,293$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.09 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3861…49fcbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…0185backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 16c | 2,888$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.08 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,863$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,822$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.72 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 8c | 2,814$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…b60ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,749$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…2fa4backed Yes | 19c | 2,716$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…77e1backed Yes | 12c | 2,638$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.47 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 16c | 2,561$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Yes | 12c | 2,526$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 80c | 2,480$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…f7fcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,396$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,374$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.68 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 17c | 2,342$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…566dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,308$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…1f72backed Yes | 13c | 2,276$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 14c | 1,967$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.44 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 1,800$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 13c | 1,797$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 12c | 1,728$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…26e9backed Yes | 17c | 1,720$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 13c | 1,703$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…10b3backed Yes | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…0928backed Yes | 6c | 1,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…7321backed Yes | 18c | 1,650$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,588$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,521$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 12c | 1,508$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe00…dc91backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…f1c1backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa168…b2f2backed Yes | 17c | 1,485$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…f1dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,425$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 79c | 1,396$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.96 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 1,389$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed Yes | 10c | 1,359$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…dedabacked Yes | 15c | 1,330$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 14c | 1,316$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.01 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 15c | 1,289$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.29 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…8b3bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,264$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 14c | 1,258$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…dcbcbacked No | 80c | 1,230$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…1a06backed Yes | 13c | 1,209$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…198fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,206$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f4…0105backed Yes | 14c | 1,177$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…3ef0backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…5263backed Yes | 14c | 1,169$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.