TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,523,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,639,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,523,164 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes10c37,903$3,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,948.8211728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes10c34,200$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.9115626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4755…7ad2backed Yes17c29,379$4,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,966333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc0…4353backed Yes17c27,388$4,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,597.411241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4487…2844backed Yes13c27,314$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes12c26,075$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.833132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes13c22,046$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.7722547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x807e…c3f9backed Yes13c14,855$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes15c14,383$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.313225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c13,161$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes15c13,130$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.6715234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc0…47d0backed Yes11c12,468$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c12,147$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.6342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes9c11,800$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.5912333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf224…29fcbacked Yes17c11,682$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes10c10,835$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.46616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes14c10,605$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.391520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe893…f2c0backed Yes12c10,420$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes8c10,051$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes9c10,000$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.89240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7087…d998backed Yes20c9,880$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes14c9,262$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.72441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes14c7,972$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.083770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes16c7,149$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.881315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes15c6,900$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03540433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c6,783$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.858817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes12c6,503$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.285736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8881…aea9backed Yes24c6,196$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes14c6,105$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8722313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes17c6,005$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.792634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes13c5,883$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.182025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c5,785$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.624234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb9b…1d68backed Yes17c5,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5d…1532backed Yes15c5,181$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes4c5,130$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes16c5,107$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.22045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes13c4,258$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b14…a908backed Yes17c4,006$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes12c3,934$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.034126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f2…c71bbacked Yes19c3,773$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57db…541bbacked Yes12c3,548$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes18c3,466$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+146.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c3,293$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.0940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bf5…a5e4backed Yes16c3,000$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3861…49fcbacked Yes6c3,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd43…0185backed Yes12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+144%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes10c3,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes16c2,888$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.083116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes16c2,863$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.932138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c2,822$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.7289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes8c2,814$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.872213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88db…b60ebacked Yes18c2,749$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da6…2fa4backed Yes19c2,716$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes12c2,638$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.472931%9 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes16c2,561$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005623.2%13 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+57.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Yes12c2,526$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No80c2,480$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.053050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06b9…f7fcbacked Yes8c2,396$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes13c2,374$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.68229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes17c2,342$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3968229.3%24 W · 58 L-12.4wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x90f2…566dbacked Yes13c2,308$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6147…1f72backed Yes13c2,276$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes4c2,200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1428427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a4…7069backed Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd049…5de7backed Yes14c1,967$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.442520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+101.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes4c1,800$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c1,800$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17315324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes13c1,797$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes12c1,728$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.91156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…26e9backed Yes17c1,720$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes13c1,703$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.578617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6199…10b3backed Yes18c1,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4b…0928backed Yes6c1,665$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c5…7321backed Yes18c1,650$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-88.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes13c1,588$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c1,521$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.731332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes12c1,508$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe00…dc91backed Yes18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2108538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb02d…f1c1backed Yes13c1,500$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa168…b2f2backed Yes17c1,485$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.99825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ad…f1dfbacked Yes14c1,425$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+49.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes15c1,400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No79c1,396$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes10c1,389$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1363619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653d…7805backed Yes10c1,359$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8e…dedabacked Yes15c1,330$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes14c1,316$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.015633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes15c1,300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.942536%9 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes15c1,289$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.295141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0567…8b3bbacked Yes12c1,264$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes14c1,258$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.893228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86d…dcbcbacked No80c1,230$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b1b…1a06backed Yes13c1,209$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.521020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b57…198fbacked Yes17c1,206$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f4…0105backed Yes14c1,177$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc30…3ef0backed Yes17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfcd…5263backed Yes14c1,169$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.