Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb48fa59207d9b16e4510c133856d6f327dc53e2c823f371ac0ea737d5cb87b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 10c | 12,439$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.18 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 13c | 5,598$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.4 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 21c | 5,158$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 30c | 4,844$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.77 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 28c | 3,597$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…c075backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 73c | 2,692$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 11c | 2,350$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 6c | 2,123$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 23c | 1,796$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…9465backed Yes | 27c | 1,569$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 36c | 1,480$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.83 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…a5b3backed Yes | 7c | 1,358$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 24c | 1,346$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 30c | 1,319$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.43 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 26c | 1,247$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 76c | 1,175$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.16 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,168$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.64 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 1,111$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.53 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,079$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 24c | 1,017$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.96 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 989.18$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.71 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 981.59$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 25c | 795.27$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 9c | 751.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…e41ebacked Yes | 28c | 710.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 24c | 706.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 26c | 699.57$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.47 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…88b7backed Yes | 28c | 663.47$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 23c | 650$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 67c | 640.1$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 634.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…13f8backed Yes | 25c | 580.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa602…8534backed Yes | 27c | 520.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 28c | 499.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 27c | 455$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 69c | 452.26$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fc…eeaabacked Yes | 33c | 434.23$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 22c | 399.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 28c | 387.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 22c | 349.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e86ebacked Yes | 25c | 275$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 28c | 266.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 71c | 247.55$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 217.97$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 41c | 216.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 25c | 203$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 183.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 24c | 178.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 35c | 143.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 141.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8d94backed Yes | 23c | 141.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 122.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 13c | 115.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 31c | 115.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…7f1abacked Yes | 28c | 111.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Yes | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked Yes | 24c | 100.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…ed86backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…eec7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…41c4backed Yes | 23c | 96.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…3cc7backed No | 68c | 64.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 58.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8299…6d53backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…931bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 42.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…313bbacked Yes | 35c | 41.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 64c | 28.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…c73abacked No | 77c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…4233backed No | 77c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…f3ddbacked No | 74c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?this page
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?Yes won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.