Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b11a0f2e9b5260986173d77f347b087eadb98b991463404dbc95cb9fafaa14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 5c | 6,016$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.92 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 5c | 4,863$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.29 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 6c | 3,808$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 6c | 2,012$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 1,151$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 15c | 908$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 6c | 899.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 890$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 855.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 8c | 849.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 5c | 826.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 3c | 664$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 3c | 636.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 17c | 630$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 614.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 6c | 506.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…96c1backed Yes | 5c | 377.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 330$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ca…f85abacked Yes | 6c | 297.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 10c | 223$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+?this page
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?Yes won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.