Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x679c625d28216f18fd401636d1cdbf7dcbec47c9a957f718f3d8571bbcaf1404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $780,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $593,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $780,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 26c | 67,200$17,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,296.08 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 10c | 65,921$6,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,479.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 7c | 33,777$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 15c | 32,988$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 19c | 29,476$5,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,601.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 51c | 21,426$10,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,536.67 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 34c | 18,351$6,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,210.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 31c | 17,850$5,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,565 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 40c | 14,481$5,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,765.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 33c | 14,385$4,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,798.78 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked Yes | 25c | 14,092$3,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…2228backed Yes | 59c | 10,579$6,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,241.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 58c | 9,767$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,680.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 11c | 8,945$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 4c | 8,141$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 73c | 6,965$5,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…aba2backed Yes | 3c | 6,944$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 48c | 6,206$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.69 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 17c | 5,696$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yes | 37c | 5,604$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…c710backed Yes | 27c | 5,602$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 37c | 5,485$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.59 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 69c | 4,660$3,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.48 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 4,459$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.45 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…aa2cbacked Yes | 46c | 4,357$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 21c | 4,339$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.69 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 11c | 4,318$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 15c | 4,124$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.84 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 35c | 4,051$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.06 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 16c | 4,032$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 30c | 3,999$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.78 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…67b3backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,500$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 20c | 3,179$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 14c | 3,118$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.7 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 19c | 2,876$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 2,758$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.78 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…8bf7backed Yes | 4c | 2,596$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 16c | 2,200$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes | 19c | 2,090$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 4c | 2,001$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a8f8backed Yes | 14c | 1,996$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 48c | 1,930$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 44c | 1,822$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,811$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,735$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 19c | 1,605$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 61c | 1,547$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.31 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 14c | 1,532$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes | 2c | 1,528$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…457fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,470$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf979…0d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,465$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,438$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,423$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 1,401$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,293$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 31c | 1,288$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.6 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 1,269$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 16c | 1,260$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +277.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 17c | 1,242$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.26 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 1,203$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 21c | 1,156$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.53 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…0088backed Yes | 7c | 1,121$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…ce88backed Yes | 4c | 1,120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 42c | 1,102$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.79 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa602…8534backed Yes | 57c | 1,090$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…f88cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,044$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 69c | 978.95$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.45 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…c04abacked Yes | 53c | 952.41$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2864…8527backed Yes | 24c | 943.94$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 4c | 930.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…fabfbacked Yes | 39c | 905.09$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 74c | 889.05$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…31a7backed Yes | 7c | 885.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…b20abacked Yes | 14c | 866.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 21c | 859.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 75c | 800$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 21c | 729.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…4560backed Yes | 4c | 729.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 63c | 696.07$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 14c | 692.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 10c | 691.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 40c | 671.36$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 39c | 666$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 59c | 650.01$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 610.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 15c | 603.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 26c | 540.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…6e4dbacked No | 80c | 525.86$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 34c | 514.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 18c | 500$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?this page
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?Yes won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.