Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa7b1c75610b6faf91e9d1e0c80448f6babdb57c7f65f592935195d336acf3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $667,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $716,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $667,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 49c | 56,485$27,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,810.88 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 71c | 37,881$26,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,926.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 72c | 34,272$24,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,480.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 30c | 33,028$9,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,204.74 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 60c | 24,156$14,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,615.91 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed No | 8c | 14,786$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 39c | 13,506$5,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,262.14 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked No | 72c | 9,277$6,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,711.62 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 3c | 9,217$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.91 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…bdb8backed No | 0c | 7,900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked No | 66c | 7,474$4,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,944.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 26c | 5,657$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.27 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 28c | 5,553$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 71c | 5,264$3,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.19 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 18c | 4,210$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 35c | 3,891$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 78c | 3,700$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 20c | 3,634$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.25 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 25c | 3,547$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 77c | 3,457$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.28 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed No | 75c | 3,312$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.4 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 17c | 3,307$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.02 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…258dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,940$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes | 38c | 2,680$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 19c | 2,492$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.21 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…2228backed No | 54c | 2,329$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 13c | 2,232$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.49 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 21c | 2,217$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.66 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 55c | 2,201$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.62 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 51c | 2,121$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.31 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 35c | 2,110$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.31 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 56c | 1,719$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.56 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…0e1bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 72c | 1,368$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…fabfbacked No | 78c | 1,168$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,059$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.42 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 1,045$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.38 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 71c | 987.46$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 17c | 971.72$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 948.7$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.26 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…3237backed No | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 52c | 818.53$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.57 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 18c | 775$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.3 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 71c | 770.54$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 712.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 17c | 700$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…4ffbbacked Yes | 77c | 674.16$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 35c | 671.36$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…083bbacked Yes | 70c | 656.13$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yes | 65c | 600$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…f4edbacked Yes | 79c | 600$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 7c | 559.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.65 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…63edbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Yes | 53c | 457.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked No | 10c | 410.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 79c | 373.06$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 53c | 351$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 50c | 344.25$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…32b4backed Yes | 67c | 343.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 33c | 340$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf979…0d2dbacked Yes | 68c | 335.94$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 65c | 331.77$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…bc5dbacked Yes | 79c | 324.64$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 22c | 324.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 16c | 307.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6689…74b8backed Yes | 77c | 304.94$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…d122backed Yes | 64c | 302.23$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 298.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 17c | 293.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 54c | 258.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 20c | 256.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…b3a6backed Yes | 49c | 226.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 31c | 225$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed Yes | 39c | 208.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 78c | 205.09$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 9c | 202.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6948…136cbacked Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed No | 14c | 166.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 165.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked No | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…e02fbacked Yes | 12c | 163.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +274.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed No | 70c | 158.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 61c | 141$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 32c | 138.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…be3bbacked No | 76c | 132.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…e319backed Yes | 76c | 131.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…e036backed Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…cfbdbacked Yes | 16c | 126.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?this page
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 18%+?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.