TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd7d5…af7f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Lol at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+117.1%+$30.2
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+87.1%+$11.17
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.5%+$119.5
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+70.2%+$69.31
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$14.33
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$43.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21.19
Will Trump say "Erdogan" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$53.43
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+117.4%+$17.82
Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+92.3%+$12.96
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+58.7%+$7.03
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+163.2%+$30.38
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+157.7%+$84.5
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.72
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.17
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$52.14
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.72
US strikes Yemen by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$13.43
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.54
Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+151.4%+$15.16
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.13
Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+37%+$6.75
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.43
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$9.9
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$69.99
Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$17.23
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+70.3%+$114.68
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+62.5%+$335.27
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$525.16
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$45.4
Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$27.16
North Korea missile launch by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+393.2%+$126.68
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.04
Another France debt downgrade by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$7.24
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.45
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.19
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.47
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$9
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$38.21
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.69
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.86
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$5.1
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$4.64
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.28
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$4
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+175.1%+$17.83
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.4%+$4.29
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$2.8
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+170.3%+$38.82
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+171%+$51.11
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+170.3%+$56.7
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12.54
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$12.54
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+157.9%+$125.02
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+174%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brewers vs. Cardinalsbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.74
Blue Jays vs. Royalsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.84
Nationals vs. Metsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.11
Athletics vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.07
Padres vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.02
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Melissa make landfall at category 1 or weaker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40.1
Will a hurricane form by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+25.7%+$7.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OGC Nice vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$284.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.