Venezuela · resolved market
Trump executive action ending payments to Colombia by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c4bea046d09bed7a12d4f51e85a78bc3c757bcda53fa5046ed93fe1733c62b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked No | 75c | 1,450$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 39c | 583.01$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.06 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 64c | 500$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 476.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…f008backed Yes | 62c | 427.25$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 55c | 328.9$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.98 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 32c | 317.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 39c | 310.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 34c | 261.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 45c | 247.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed Yes | 21c | 238.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 50c | 210.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 37c | 210$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…55bcbacked Yes | 53c | 199.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 161.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 21c | 161.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 145.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 129.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…7c33backed No | 62c | 124.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 32c | 106.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…d690backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 76c | 97.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 56c | 78.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 51c | 76.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680f…3595backed Yes | 18c | 75.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 43c | 63.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 45c | 63.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 63.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 56.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…f717backed Yes | 19c | 51.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…c136backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 54c | 47.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 62c | 46.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…8211backed Yes | 77c | 41.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…4d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 32c | 32.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bb…a686backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa828…c1aabacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…65debacked No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…6e9ebacked No | 61c | 21.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 63c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…474ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.