TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x699e…55bc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$75.24
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$68.33
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Joshua Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Jack Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Beneil Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Louie Sutherland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$29.12
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Israel Adesanya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$26.67
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$14.5
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$18.2
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.85
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.6
Suns vs. Clippersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.4
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$36
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$48
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.65
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.3
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Nets vs. Hornetsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$472.5
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.73
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.93
Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnLbacked Mitch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+36.4%+$18.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$25.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas A&M vs. LSUbacked Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.