Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e0d4320eb9666e93e20f989061f3eee82e80de9caff260cdeb9c0a4946093b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,431,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,553,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,431,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked No | 8c | 594,501$50,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,060.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed No | 15c | 388,776$59,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,017.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…4da0backed No | 12c | 226,213$27,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,484.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 0c | 226,129$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 1c | 213,924$3,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.44 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 7c | 188,282$13,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,836.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…7976backed No | 7c | 157,599$11,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,056.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked No | 10c | 151,914$15,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,865.67 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…ac82backed No | 3c | 142,647$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,125.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…324dbacked No | 11c | 122,521$13,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,021.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed No | 4c | 101,700$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,774.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f2…4497backed No | 20c | 99,491$19,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,948.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked No | 10c | 98,842$10,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,229.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…63b2backed No | 8c | 93,086$7,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,337.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…6e30backed No | 14c | 92,495$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…6a7dbacked No | 6c | 83,789$5,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,221.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 80,857$7,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,657.43 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39a3…92e1backed No | 12c | 75,012$9,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,096.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked No | 2c | 69,690$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 15c | 68,920$10,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,278.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c7…6b2bbacked No | 11c | 67,646$7,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,329.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00b…3731backed No | 10c | 63,806$6,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,576.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1503backed No | 4c | 61,931$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 60,201$7,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,949.14 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…6f12backed No | 20c | 54,987$10,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,875.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…322dbacked No | 13c | 54,681$7,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,087.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 5c | 50,607$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,770.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…713bbacked No | 20c | 50,228$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…ca82backed No | 2c | 48,301$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked No | 9c | 48,204$4,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,443 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 5c | 47,198$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…b7b7backed No | 9c | 45,280$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…13e6backed No | 0c | 44,385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…47febacked No | 8c | 44,196$3,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,556.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a42…de2cbacked No | 23c | 43,216$10,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,101.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…020abacked No | 14c | 43,101$6,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,018.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…357cbacked No | 11c | 41,838$4,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,402.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked No | 10c | 41,600$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 15c | 39,647$5,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,867.49 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 3c | 39,639$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…7937backed No | 4c | 38,515$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed No | 6c | 37,693$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…522abacked No | 13c | 37,350$4,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,967.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No | 16c | 37,045$5,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,932.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…7aeabacked No | 9c | 35,870$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 9c | 35,393$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed No | 4c | 35,073$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…39e2backed No | 10c | 34,298$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…5c72backed No | 14c | 33,566$4,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,832.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked No | 9c | 32,313$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…15abbacked No | 11c | 31,671$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 13c | 31,668$4,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,273.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed No | 22c | 31,390$6,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,794.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 8c | 31,051$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.85 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked No | 12c | 30,309$3,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…592abacked No | 0c | 30,157$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa646…a861backed No | 12c | 29,542$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…5262backed No | 14c | 29,001$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,005.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 0c | 28,917$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 4c | 28,883$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.23 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…079abacked No | 17c | 28,643$5,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,012.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f2c0backed No | 14c | 28,572$3,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…6b43backed No | 1c | 28,337$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked No | 0c | 27,402$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…2b2dbacked No | 2c | 26,422$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 6c | 26,221$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…0567backed Yes | 79c | 25,320$19,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,329.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…b1d6backed No | 19c | 25,009$4,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…c015backed No | 10c | 24,255$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 14c | 23,303$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 23c | 22,611$5,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,153.31 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed No | 0c | 21,920$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 2c | 21,875$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.88 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…8fafbacked No | 9c | 21,494$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a86…e045backed No | 8c | 20,586$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed No | 23c | 20,478$4,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9828…708dbacked No | 8c | 20,443$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe586…b08ebacked No | 14c | 20,271$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 0c | 20,003$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb654…d7a2backed No | 10c | 20,000$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked No | 12c | 19,082$2,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked No | 4c | 18,323$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7f…9485backed No | 4c | 18,186$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…3739backed No | 18c | 17,624$3,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,167.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…661ebacked No | 18c | 17,527$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 7c | 17,306$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…9695backed No | 9c | 16,835$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed No | 9c | 16,539$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.61 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…73bbbacked No | 11c | 16,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…81ccbacked No | 15c | 16,421$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c23…32fbbacked No | 1c | 16,416$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…9cbabacked No | 12c | 16,297$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 16,100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…814dbacked No | 9c | 15,796$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…c710backed No | 16c | 15,588$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked No | 8c | 14,927$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 14,896$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…576cbacked No | 15c | 14,838$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…aaaebacked No | 18c | 14,734$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…c12ebacked No | 12c | 14,297$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?this page
- Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.