Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd17757503436b5c1de513e6a98d6aa7c35535005813d068b3d0ca80aac5ae37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,018,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,150,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,018,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8951…43efbacked No | 0c | 291,674$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e5…1251backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb1…2856backed No | 0c | 34,888$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…bd8bbacked No | 9c | 34,089$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 0c | 23,499$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 4c | 20,000$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked No | 2c | 16,883$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…5174backed No | 4c | 16,667$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 0c | 12,255$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 2c | 11,891$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed No | 0c | 10,520$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…7c4fbacked No | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…5322backed No | 0c | 10,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…2528backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…7a7bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No | 3c | 8,770$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…1f7ebacked No | 0c | 7,687$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 3c | 7,274$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.23 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…e711backed No | 1c | 6,803$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed No | 2c | 6,095$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 5,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 2c | 4,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 13c | 4,120$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.51 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 7c | 3,922$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.45 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed No | 0c | 3,815$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…f7febacked No | 6c | 3,080$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe173…6cf5backed No | 4c | 2,995$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…7bd3backed No | 2c | 2,812$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…72afbacked No | 2c | 2,753$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 18cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked No | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3562…ae82backed No | 3c | 2,403$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…4226backed No | 2c | 2,332$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…17d1backed No | 1c | 2,160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…2de4backed No | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 4c | 1,996$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked No | 8c | 1,760$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,384$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 8c | 1,362$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked No | 8c | 1,247$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked No | 1c | 1,218$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…2970backed No | 2c | 1,163$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…fc5cbacked No | 2c | 1,074$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b7…01ebbacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…63bcbacked No | 4c | 975.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…ac82backed No | 18c | 900$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…8688backed No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…8ff5backed No | 2c | 761$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…60fcbacked No | 2c | 711.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…852abacked No | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 2c | 610.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4fe9backed No | 15c | 603.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…b963backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 526.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…6862backed No | 3c | 496.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…8b5bbacked No | 5c | 410.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…a297backed No | 4c | 367.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…e1ddbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…0c6ebacked No | 4c | 278.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…8a62backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…fee4backed No | 9c | 214.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…c793backed No | 8c | 210.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…8b13backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed No | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…0918backed No | 12c | 129.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ea…45e3backed No | 12c | 100.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?this page
- Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.