TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,303,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,538,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,838 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8133…3bb4backed No42c319,875$133,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,965.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f5…2e8dbacked No38c261,518$99,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,581.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+186.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce1c…782abacked Yes61c185,054$113,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,567.32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed Yes65c185,013$120,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,963.11963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4ce…6e30backed No44c172,355$76,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,514.43540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5376…ac82backed No32c147,129$47,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,749.28520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91bc…cee3backed Yes63c123,898$77,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,210.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f0…5174backed No22c118,403$25,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,942.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b58…7487backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf445…df8abacked Yes65c97,434$63,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,630.881060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes51c91,681$46,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,187.72911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-78.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa825…797abacked Yes73c90,879$66,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,362.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes65c74,791$48,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,241.221118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-73.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed No23c73,280$16,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,578.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-63.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No27c69,999$19,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,009.42742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…1f7bbacked No43c69,735$29,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,937.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e0…0f82backed Yes68c62,928$42,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,077.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb1…e39abacked Yes59c61,412$36,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,133.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3744…c141backed No46c56,586$25,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,746.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd276…b562backed No14c50,000$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,015.1760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed Yes68c50,000$34,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-79%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed Yes72c47,747$34,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,212.245028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed No34c46,997$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,200.061910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9636…b7b7backed No44c46,757$20,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,601.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes59c44,969$26,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,620.164847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No32c42,336$13,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,743.158532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8398…fe44backed Yes54c42,103$22,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,440.291428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e3…3fb1backed Yes60c41,836$24,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,937.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…3ffbbacked Yes72c40,426$28,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,434.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffde…c665backed Yes55c40,000$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.97333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Yes67c38,409$25,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,506.37742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+329.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes70c37,893$26,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,295.711866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc443…f19fbacked Yes74c37,876$28,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,768.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed Yes70c35,911$25,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,860.151833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4375…8e8abacked Yes66c35,854$23,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,186.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes64c35,850$23,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,798.51618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9886…6856backed Yes59c35,472$20,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,551.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No29c35,087$10,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,061.8214437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No25c33,742$8,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,514.717234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00b…3731backed No37c33,525$12,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,385.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…627dbacked No34c32,371$11,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,101.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x410c…7d2fbacked Yes64c32,117$20,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,575.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No28c30,545$8,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,623.1512840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbd8…e8e9backed Yes79c30,299$23,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,482.821233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes68c29,000$19,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,319.99825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes57c28,538$16,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,212.313056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c8…f51abacked Yes64c27,230$17,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,684.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked No26c27,000$7,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,046.711844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf893…cc40backed Yes52c26,791$13,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,833.62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f0…4da0backed No38c26,382$9,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,938.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c5…65d1backed No18c26,255$4,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,669.061323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc919…a162backed Yes77c25,291$19,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,714.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0c…7923backed No44c22,824$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f16…324dbacked No49c22,616$11,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,009.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ac…fb0bbacked Yes78c22,340$17,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,828.691540%6 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No46c22,258$10,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,292.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c22,084$6,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,741.6735712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89ac…8e15backed Yes51c21,504$11,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,461.511631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes69c21,284$14,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,618.452123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes61c21,252$13,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,229.214751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes55c21,217$11,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5503119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x82b0…bd8bbacked No28c21,209$5,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,923.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes72c21,087$15,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,943.793756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed Yes62c20,430$12,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,851.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…da04backed No4c20,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.66520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,199.992236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Yes53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No30c20,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes70c19,631$13,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,814.485657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x96d4…ba93backed No26c19,592$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dad…5758backed No42c19,387$8,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,095.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes62c19,332$11,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,380.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x020d…2b2dbacked No24c19,273$4,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed Yes56c19,090$10,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb8…e0dcbacked Yes54c18,490$9,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,505.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked No12c18,305$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.651540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d80…9552backed Yes80c18,180$14,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes64c18,091$11,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,452.751612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-80.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d3c…2fa7backed Yes69c18,030$12,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,626742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a2…94edbacked Yes69c17,986$12,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,600.72240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes64c17,017$10,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,184.573243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb494…b7b5backed Yes58c16,691$9,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,006.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed No38c16,300$6,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,217850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No34c15,581$5,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,226.051442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb71…a44abacked Yes65c15,389$9,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,415.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes64c14,885$9,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,354.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b94…7aeabacked No14c14,842$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa4…a1bfbacked No13c14,681$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2366…47febacked No2c14,436$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.25616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-75.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes58c14,004$8,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,938.9510462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4596…b214backed No2c13,946$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb6…a986backed No35c13,726$4,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,808.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb654…d7a2backed No17c13,460$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6589…39e2backed No36c13,335$4,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,788650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686e…ca82backed No28c13,105$3,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,656.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked Yes61c13,017$7,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,076.51735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+96.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ec…5262backed No36c12,319$4,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,383.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked No33c12,190$4,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,022.71741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e0…e7bcbacked Yes59c12,045$7,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,975.591735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbf5…ecf5backed Yes69c12,000$8,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.