Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21fa02ef79ac3e83a32c5ecafeca8ce5629609ba1773d9cc69e39b04f66bfa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,303,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,538,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,838 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed No | 42c | 319,875$133,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133,965.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked No | 38c | 261,518$99,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,581.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1c…782abacked Yes | 61c | 185,054$113,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,567.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 65c | 185,013$120,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,963.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…6e30backed No | 44c | 172,355$76,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,514.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…ac82backed No | 32c | 147,129$47,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,749.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…cee3backed Yes | 63c | 123,898$77,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,210.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…5174backed No | 22c | 118,403$25,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,942.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…7487backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…df8abacked Yes | 65c | 97,434$63,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,630.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 51c | 91,681$46,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,187.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…797abacked Yes | 73c | 90,879$66,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,362.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 65c | 74,791$48,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,241.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 23c | 73,280$16,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,578.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked No | 27c | 69,999$19,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,009.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…1f7bbacked No | 43c | 69,735$29,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,937.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…0f82backed Yes | 68c | 62,928$42,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,077.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…e39abacked Yes | 59c | 61,412$36,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,133.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…c141backed No | 46c | 56,586$25,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,746.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b562backed No | 14c | 50,000$7,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,015.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 68c | 50,000$34,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 72c | 47,747$34,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,212.24 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 34c | 46,997$16,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,200.06 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…b7b7backed No | 44c | 46,757$20,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,601.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 59c | 44,969$26,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,620.16 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 32c | 42,336$13,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,743.15 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…fe44backed Yes | 54c | 42,103$22,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,440.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…3fb1backed Yes | 60c | 41,836$24,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,937.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…3ffbbacked Yes | 72c | 40,426$28,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,434.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c665backed Yes | 55c | 40,000$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,999.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Yes | 67c | 38,409$25,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,506.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +329.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 70c | 37,893$26,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,295.71 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 74c | 37,876$28,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,768.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 70c | 35,911$25,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,860.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…8e8abacked Yes | 66c | 35,854$23,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,186.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes | 64c | 35,850$23,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,798.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9886…6856backed Yes | 59c | 35,472$20,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,551.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 29c | 35,087$10,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,061.82 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 25c | 33,742$8,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,514.71 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00b…3731backed No | 37c | 33,525$12,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,385.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…627dbacked No | 34c | 32,371$11,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,101.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…7d2fbacked Yes | 64c | 32,117$20,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,575.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 28c | 30,545$8,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,623.15 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…e8e9backed Yes | 79c | 30,299$23,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,482.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 68c | 29,000$19,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,319.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes | 57c | 28,538$16,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,212.31 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked Yes | 64c | 27,230$17,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,684.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked No | 26c | 27,000$7,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,046.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf893…cc40backed Yes | 52c | 26,791$13,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,833.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…4da0backed No | 38c | 26,382$9,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,938.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 18c | 26,255$4,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,669.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…a162backed Yes | 77c | 25,291$19,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,714.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0c…7923backed No | 44c | 22,824$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…324dbacked No | 49c | 22,616$11,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,009.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fb0bbacked Yes | 78c | 22,340$17,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,828.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 46c | 22,258$10,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,292.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 22,084$6,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,741.67 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…8e15backed Yes | 51c | 21,504$11,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,461.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 69c | 21,284$14,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,618.45 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 61c | 21,252$13,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,229.21 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 55c | 21,217$11,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,550 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…bd8bbacked No | 28c | 21,209$5,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,923.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 72c | 21,087$15,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,943.79 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed Yes | 62c | 20,430$12,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,851.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…da04backed No | 4c | 20,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,199.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Yes | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,399.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No | 30c | 20,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 70c | 19,631$13,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,814.48 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…ba93backed No | 26c | 19,592$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed No | 42c | 19,387$8,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,095.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Yes | 62c | 19,332$11,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,380.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…2b2dbacked No | 24c | 19,273$4,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed Yes | 56c | 19,090$10,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,399.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…e0dcbacked Yes | 54c | 18,490$9,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,505.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked No | 12c | 18,305$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…9552backed Yes | 80c | 18,180$14,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,639.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 64c | 18,091$11,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,452.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3c…2fa7backed Yes | 69c | 18,030$12,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,626 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked Yes | 69c | 17,986$12,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 64c | 17,017$10,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,184.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb494…b7b5backed Yes | 58c | 16,691$9,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,006.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed No | 38c | 16,300$6,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,217 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 34c | 15,581$5,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,226.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…a44abacked Yes | 65c | 15,389$9,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,415.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 64c | 14,885$9,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,354.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…7aeabacked No | 14c | 14,842$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked No | 13c | 14,681$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…47febacked No | 2c | 14,436$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 58c | 14,004$8,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,938.95 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4596…b214backed No | 2c | 13,946$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb6…a986backed No | 35c | 13,726$4,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,808.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb654…d7a2backed No | 17c | 13,460$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…39e2backed No | 36c | 13,335$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…ca82backed No | 28c | 13,105$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,656.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…b08bbacked Yes | 61c | 13,017$7,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…5262backed No | 36c | 12,319$4,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,383.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 33c | 12,190$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,022.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked Yes | 59c | 12,045$7,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,975.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…ecf5backed Yes | 69c | 12,000$8,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,779.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?this page
- Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.