TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,824,151
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,511,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,824,151 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,927 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05ab…8145backed Yes13c783,079$97,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,897.628532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes12c599,702$74,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,363.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-78.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed Yes5c374,109$17,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,092.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-79%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes14c310,672$44,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,008.77128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-88.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes5c309,302$16,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,722.842714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28a6…ee64backed Yes5c273,757$13,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,981.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes18c248,393$44,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,823.551921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes8c235,612$18,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,274.73119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes15c230,000$33,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,739.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes12c224,829$25,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,887.946217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1866…f0fbbacked No76c206,445$157,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,056.29580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f03…8973backed Yes6c179,264$11,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,348.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a44…c20bbacked Yes22c171,950$37,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,806.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes13c158,765$20,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,584.944450%22 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes16c138,672$22,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,233.751612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-80.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes5c137,427$7,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,324.562123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aaf…c6b6backed No76c132,032$99,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,149.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No45c123,190$55,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,208.181442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd25a…674fbacked No77c120,985$93,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,639.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes4c120,935$5,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,137.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…7eaabacked Yes1c120,058$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.951225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e9a…923dbacked Yes1c110,276$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb5…a27bbacked Yes19c110,201$21,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,434.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes21c106,410$21,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,867.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb725…ee14backed Yes1c101,892$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed No76c101,343$77,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,064.151963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8510…20f7backed Yes25c97,935$24,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,949.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0c…7923backed No79c96,881$76,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,926.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfc…83ebbacked Yes3c96,378$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.021526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes7c95,321$6,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,613.85633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed No75c91,951$69,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,544.544744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes14c85,001$11,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,890.113056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fb6…a986backed Yes25c81,821$20,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,455.31333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87bf…755fbacked Yes48c73,552$35,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,188.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f0…4da0backed No75c67,942$51,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,701.27540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No79c65,545$51,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,877.374254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11bc…d9fabacked Yes0c64,047$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c63,350$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked No57c62,000$35,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,664.341844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Yes1c52,724$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…c665backed Yes12c50,621$6,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,252.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2785…70aebacked Yes17c50,000$8,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No75c48,867$36,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,362.639046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…9a5ebacked Yes12c48,681$5,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,738.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd79f…2fecbacked Yes25c48,280$11,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,839.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes10c48,143$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.644233.3%14 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb741…a996backed No78c47,992$37,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,681.942871.4%20 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+119%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed Yes70c47,510$33,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,256.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Yes6c46,000$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c50…8100backed Yes29c44,466$12,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,874.511414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes6c41,333$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da4…d4f3backed No56c40,971$22,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,221.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa074…f1c9backed Yes1c40,501$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba5…c7b1backed Yes6c40,385$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23e0…66b6backed Yes25c40,000$9,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,996.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…da04backed Yes26c40,000$10,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,369.98520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9189…7250backed No76c39,900$30,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,586.731163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes20c39,831$7,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,770.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c39,548$9,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,616.0935712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No75c39,523$29,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,904.68742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes5c39,375$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.321315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe866…2e9ebacked Yes0c39,091$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.09933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bb…e75fbacked Yes10c38,646$3,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,738.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Yes25c38,583$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4012…020abacked No78c37,395$28,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,411.97911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-85.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7fd…5a2bbacked Yes25c37,077$9,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,185.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c36,100$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.51712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32ec…5262backed No70c35,507$24,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,565.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes1c35,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes26c35,000$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,099.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes28c34,998$9,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,811.497234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc73…ed2abacked Yes28c34,764$9,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,882.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No45c34,523$15,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,960.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0306…6f12backed No75c34,110$25,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,526.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98df…3591backed Yes6c34,104$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a9…a0a9backed Yes28c33,006$9,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,358.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d6…8b36backed Yes42c32,500$13,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,494.94862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+44.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c8…f51abacked No73c31,557$23,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,510.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes15c31,355$4,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,786.71866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3997…e141backed Yes1c30,849$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9636…b7b7backed No75c30,590$22,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,638.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa867…28bfbacked Yes24c30,025$7,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,278.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…eb83backed No80c28,599$22,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,830.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+191.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes17c28,455$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed No76c28,249$21,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,891.362544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes8c28,170$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.794032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c27,507$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.5728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No49c27,205$13,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,820.83714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-71%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24f8…0841backed Yes6c27,090$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf532…70eabacked No74c25,701$19,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,571.42728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3c…2fa7backed Yes33c25,639$8,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,518.87742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes48c25,510$12,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,263.931618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes1c25,231$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.851540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…c459backed Yes5c24,265$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes12c23,690$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.822512%3 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…d5bfbacked Yes9c23,456$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x483e…e286backed Yes1c23,209$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed No60c22,900$13,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,062.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes11c22,612$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd58e…6245backed Yes28c22,050$6,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,173.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.