Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42d812af0840d50685b0aaa0cc0a4b3c07a680cd12a85d88a377558f3621c78c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,882,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,321,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,882,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,066 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 44c | 414,560$181,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181,789.73 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…0f82backed Yes | 14c | 365,708$51,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,908.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 28c | 338,125$95,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,317.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 43c | 304,362$131,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131,851.08 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…ee64backed Yes | 41c | 249,749$103,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,493.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed No | 29c | 227,199$64,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,440.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 22c | 166,520$35,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,928.45 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…2e9ebacked Yes | 0c | 151,798$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked Yes | 19c | 149,412$27,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,900.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…627dbacked No | 73c | 132,294$97,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,237.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…e75fbacked Yes | 41c | 126,857$51,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,734.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…ac82backed No | 31c | 123,870$38,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,485.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes | 28c | 120,008$33,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,779.3 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 24c | 118,936$28,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,644.69 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…3fcebacked No | 21c | 116,605$24,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,991.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked No | 54c | 111,962$60,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,071.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed No | 63c | 107,991$68,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,709.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…063ebacked Yes | 41c | 94,037$38,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,933.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa4…2638backed No | 67c | 93,472$63,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,466.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 45c | 93,218$42,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,150.13 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce1c…782abacked Yes | 31c | 88,983$27,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,332.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…7c3abacked Yes | 6c | 87,193$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 35c | 84,959$29,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,326.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901c…2d73backed Yes | 45c | 79,522$35,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,855.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 21c | 78,819$16,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,869.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb6…a986backed No | 42c | 78,013$33,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,987.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked No | 69c | 76,359$52,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,534.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 49c | 75,975$37,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,360.29 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…b145backed Yes | 55c | 75,275$41,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,469.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes | 43c | 72,778$31,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,638.98 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…8973backed Yes | 30c | 72,250$21,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,348.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 45c | 68,164$30,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,636.61 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8a…e4cdbacked No | 46c | 67,768$30,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,877.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…da04backed No | 49c | 63,735$31,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,460.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…5c72backed No | 67c | 63,152$42,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,800.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 3c | 63,049$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 47c | 62,388$29,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,424.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked No | 45c | 59,949$26,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,059.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 50c | 56,126$28,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,008.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…c141backed No | 66c | 56,017$37,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,930.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes | 35c | 55,392$19,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,330.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9189…7250backed No | 71c | 54,322$38,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,923.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 50c | 53,868$26,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,753.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 0c | 53,353$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…99dcbacked No | 72c | 51,927$37,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,662.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…8e8abacked No | 56c | 51,707$28,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,827.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 54c | 51,521$27,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,925.14 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 34c | 51,142$17,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,486.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…fe21backed Yes | 54c | 50,683$27,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,467.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…e986backed Yes | 39c | 50,546$19,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,532.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed No | 54c | 50,410$27,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,946.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 64c | 49,604$31,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,615.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…20f7backed Yes | 39c | 48,524$19,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,146.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 37c | 48,192$17,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,643.26 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…4df6backed Yes | 1c | 48,020$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed No | 68c | 47,987$32,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,273.21 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…cee3backed Yes | 28c | 47,146$13,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,198.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…b7b7backed No | 78c | 46,756$36,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,272.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 18c | 45,131$7,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,946.03 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…ce44backed Yes | 1c | 44,959$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 75c | 44,599$33,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,239.15 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 62c | 42,959$26,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,515.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…f6cbbacked No | 53c | 42,214$22,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,925.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 27c | 41,980$11,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,469.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 32c | 41,672$13,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,500 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 61c | 41,541$25,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,363.65 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 32c | 41,259$13,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,079.91 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 41c | 40,900$16,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,766.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…7d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 39,963$15,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,434.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 38,768$11,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,637.87 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…902bbacked Yes | 52c | 38,701$19,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,967.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e6…389dbacked No | 45c | 37,971$17,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,970.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…4da0backed No | 63c | 37,034$23,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,779.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…6e30backed Yes | 6c | 36,824$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 55c | 36,616$19,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,986.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…bbdbbacked Yes | 55c | 36,251$19,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,909.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 26c | 36,000$9,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,489.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…324dbacked No | 62c | 35,393$21,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,501.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…4ec9backed No | 51c | 35,183$18,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,090.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 63c | 35,115$22,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,826.43 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed No | 26c | 34,629$8,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,710.26 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes | 35c | 33,188$11,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,612.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…9ee4backed No | 56c | 32,774$18,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,315.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd62…b6d3backed No | 51c | 31,131$15,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,332.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…3fb1backed Yes | 26c | 30,891$8,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,144.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…b143backed Yes | 0c | 30,073$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c665backed Yes | 35c | 30,000$10,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,499 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336d…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 29,939$10,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,525.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 57c | 28,911$16,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,452.19 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 78c | 28,627$22,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,268.61 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…5a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 28,070$5,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,151.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 33c | 27,705$9,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,168.95 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…eb7dbacked Yes | 39c | 27,627$10,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,832.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed No | 70c | 27,597$19,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,345.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…2d0ebacked No | 46c | 27,000$12,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,630 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…9552backed Yes | 69c | 26,635$18,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,272.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…b4c6backed Yes | 34c | 26,613$8,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,989 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes | 31c | 25,866$8,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,023.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed Yes | 54c | 25,391$13,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,711.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…53c5backed Yes | 42c | 24,476$10,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,182.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?this page
- Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.