TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$989,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,128,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $989,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes1c100,000$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.88128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-88.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes1c83,200$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.92911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-78.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes3c52,523$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.131618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a44…c20bbacked Yes3c44,649$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039f…80cfbacked Yes3c43,461$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c22,100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.11712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32a7…bf08backed Yes4c20,584$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.62616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c17,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1991711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2809…6841backed Yes4c12,835$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c50…8100backed Yes9c11,867$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8398…fe44backed Yes2c11,392$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.771428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes1c11,376$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.216247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0d0…97d3backed Yes8c11,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c10,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Yes3c8,489$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.231250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04f1…b550backed Yes0c7,585$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c7,342$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.745623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes14c7,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…fd92backed Yes1c6,424$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.31625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2333…0008backed Yes1c6,223$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes10c5,300$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.685712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9382…75eabacked Yes0c5,043$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes1c4,883$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.49616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes2c4,761$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.982828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d40…f14dbacked Yes13c4,664$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…7e4abacked Yes6c4,270$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…bedebacked Yes12c4,100$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c3,962$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.312377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb32…34d7backed Yes0c3,587$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,734$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.987663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0015…d5b0backed Yes1c2,606$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.111020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-50.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…4447backed Yes4c2,462$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x175b…93aebacked Yes11c2,400$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.051533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1d5…5637backed Yes2c2,222$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.441216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes12c2,222$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.642532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…47d1backed Yes1c2,137$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…da04backed Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3038…e902backed Yes7c1,954$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a0…a192backed Yes3c1,800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59f3…483fbacked Yes7c1,667$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.87616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc916…e32ebacked Yes5c1,600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…0896backed Yes1c1,520$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c1,508$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.141107.3%8 W · 102 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x526d…5c50backed Yes7c1,456$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a0…3ddfbacked Yes4c1,370$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0995…620dbacked Yes15c1,367$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002119%4 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8d…70febacked Yes2c1,250$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.551136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes1c1,201$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.612512%3 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd036…ff2ebacked Yes1c1,130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-54.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes1c1,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3da…ef04backed Yes5c1,050$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…3792backed Yes2c1,008$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes2c881.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.984032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb71f…faa0backed Yes18c853.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Yes5c804.47$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes7c719.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+77.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5a…77d2backed Yes6c693.79$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…9db0backed Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48d1…4903backed Yes7c593.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+105.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes13c586$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.186240.3%25 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ae…8ebebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes2c499.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a8…7153backed Yes8c408.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.691921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c6…5b68backed Yes7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x277e…9d43backed Yes10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ea…6663backed Yes6c342.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b65…0d1dbacked Yes7c289.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9510…9d19backed Yes17c287.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…54d2backed Yes5c239.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes6c222.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.561650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b2d…46c2backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-71.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-80.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1813…7262backed Yes17c194.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x148a…7e84backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540e…ffedbacked Yes12c170.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202425%6 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.435712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x349c…2d15backed Yes17c144.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f35…3888backed Yes10c134.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc586…d098backed Yes16c134.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfca2…48cbbacked Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde3…8e16backed Yes16c114.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38c…ddd2backed Yes10c101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8b…3ba5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e30…382dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.