Token Launches · resolved market
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec18e7a50894f62dbd9b228ae2c8bc35835bf1d7ca9c3e7f86fcb8ad91f764d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $989,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,128,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $989,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 1c | 83,200$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes | 3c | 52,523$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a44…c20bbacked Yes | 3c | 44,649$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039f…80cfbacked Yes | 3c | 43,461$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…bf08backed Yes | 4c | 20,584$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…6841backed Yes | 4c | 12,835$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed Yes | 9c | 11,867$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…fe44backed Yes | 2c | 11,392$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 1c | 11,376$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d0…97d3backed Yes | 8c | 11,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…e04dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Yes | 3c | 8,489$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…b550backed Yes | 0c | 7,585$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,342$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes | 14c | 7,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…fd92backed Yes | 1c | 6,424$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…0008backed Yes | 1c | 6,223$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 10c | 5,300$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.68 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…75eabacked Yes | 0c | 5,043$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 1c | 4,883$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,761$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…f14dbacked Yes | 13c | 4,664$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…7e4abacked Yes | 6c | 4,270$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…bedebacked Yes | 12c | 4,100$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,962$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…34d7backed Yes | 0c | 3,587$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,734$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0015…d5b0backed Yes | 1c | 2,606$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…4447backed Yes | 4c | 2,462$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 11c | 2,400$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…5637backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…47d1backed Yes | 1c | 2,137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…da04backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…e902backed Yes | 7c | 1,954$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…a192backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…483fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,667$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…0896backed Yes | 1c | 1,520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,508$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526d…5c50backed Yes | 7c | 1,456$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…3ddfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,370$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,367$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 1c | 1,201$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ff2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…ef04backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…3792backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…ab96backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 2c | 881.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…faa0backed Yes | 18c | 853.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…6a7cbacked Yes | 5c | 804.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 7c | 719.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…77d2backed Yes | 6c | 693.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…9db0backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…4903backed Yes | 7c | 593.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes | 13c | 586$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…8ebebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…570dbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…7153backed Yes | 8c | 408.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…5b68backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…9d43backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6663backed Yes | 6c | 342.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…0d1dbacked Yes | 7c | 289.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 17c | 287.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Yes | 5c | 239.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 6c | 222.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…2ba5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…46c2backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…7262backed Yes | 17c | 194.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148a…7e84backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked Yes | 12c | 170.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x349c…2d15backed Yes | 17c | 144.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…3888backed Yes | 10c | 134.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…d098backed Yes | 16c | 134.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…48cbbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…8e16backed Yes | 16c | 114.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ddd2backed Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…3ba5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?this page
- Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.