Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9920212c135186c21ab3cb81f9a53f2ad5bcbce86bec7bd423786ab5e45f0ffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,462,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,946,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,462,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 489 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 4c | 106,922$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 3c | 102,245$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,182.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed No | 14c | 55,543$7,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,554.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…c73cbacked No | 1c | 50,914$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5412…f86fbacked No | 0c | 48,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed No | 8c | 46,240$3,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,573.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 0c | 44,799$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed No | 25c | 40,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.99 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…22e4backed No | 1c | 35,236$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 79c | 33,980$26,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,077.86 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 32,503$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…efa6backed No | 2c | 23,987$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…6a14backed No | 4c | 23,924$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 75c | 23,479$17,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,897.63 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 74c | 23,013$17,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,911.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…ac82backed No | 5c | 22,788$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 23c | 22,200$5,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,188.07 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 25c | 20,525$5,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,136.66 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…b145backed Yes | 77c | 19,967$15,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed No | 1c | 19,069$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 11c | 17,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f2c0backed No | 22c | 16,361$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…9a75backed No | 1c | 15,056$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 30c | 14,965$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,559.55 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8246…6241backed No | 0c | 14,630$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…3c13backed No | 0c | 14,357$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…bb37backed No | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…e75fbacked Yes | 67c | 14,210$9,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,709.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked No | 1c | 13,448$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked No | 7c | 13,026$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 9c | 11,399$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.04 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked No | 6c | 10,595$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.13 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…b143backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b2…865ebacked No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…4ce5backed No | 20c | 10,000$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…72adbacked No | 5c | 9,630$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 76c | 9,500$7,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 75c | 9,028$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed No | 6c | 9,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 1c | 8,917$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 69c | 8,832$6,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.23 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…e080backed No | 1c | 8,367$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed No | 5c | 8,225$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…3c94backed No | 22c | 8,148$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 75c | 8,062$6,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 5c | 7,551$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.22 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked No | 27c | 7,535$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…71e0backed No | 4c | 7,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 78c | 7,378$5,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.88 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…d5bfbacked Yes | 68c | 7,368$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 7,115$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.58 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked No | 23c | 7,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…63b2backed No | 25c | 7,000$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…77bdbacked No | 7c | 6,999$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed No | 23c | 6,449$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 30c | 6,330$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.52 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed No | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15c3…24a2backed No | 1c | 6,118$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…f9b2backed No | 15c | 6,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…731cbacked No | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 31c | 5,860$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked No | 8c | 5,569$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad0…8a4cbacked Yes | 73c | 5,510$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…8ca0backed No | 0c | 5,444$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…7aeabacked No | 10c | 5,142$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…1d98backed No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed No | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…6b3dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…20ebbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 26c | 5,000$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.19 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 2c | 4,888$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…c015backed No | 11c | 4,705$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed No | 23c | 4,636$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…f7e5backed No | 22c | 4,636$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 78c | 4,587$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed Yes | 78c | 4,565$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 28c | 4,490$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked No | 17c | 4,350$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…06c4backed No | 0c | 4,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes | 76c | 4,317$3,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.08 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f03…c49dbacked No | 1c | 4,289$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 6c | 4,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…b963backed No | 23c | 4,194$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed Yes | 79c | 4,177$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.24 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280c…9068backed No | 8c | 4,143$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked No | 2c | 4,075$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…dedebacked No | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…73bbbacked No | 8c | 4,000$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…0b94backed No | 1c | 3,810$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…004fbacked No | 1c | 3,770$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…b8e0backed No | 8c | 3,679$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…ad4dbacked No | 27c | 3,558$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 25c | 3,500$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…5aaabacked No | 4c | 3,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a86…e045backed No | 25c | 3,475$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…7ab4backed No | 2c | 3,464$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…8fafbacked No | 29c | 3,448$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed No | 16c | 3,442$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…5688backed No | 2c | 3,420$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?this page
- Over $1.1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Yes won
- Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
- Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.