TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe714…d510

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,444Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,443.88
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,082.4
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$606Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$605.56
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$5,564Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+175.2%+$9,747.55
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,951Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+202.5%+$3,950.45
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.72
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$920
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$9,996Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+79.9%+$7,983.24
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$227.3
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$5,391Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+59.6%+$3,214.21
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.19
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25,051Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+43.4%+$10,860.15
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,201Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+380.2%+$4,567.53
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,748Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,748.03
Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,008.52
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,371Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.6%+$1,161.98
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,460Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+52%+$2,317.69
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$866Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+171.8%+$1,487.75
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$261.33
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,146Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,146.25
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,696Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,696.26
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$6,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,000
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,019.09
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,339Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+25%+$334.84
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,001.99
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,000.25
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$4,944Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,944.34
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,224Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$22,485.9
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$7,794Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+329.6%+$25,686.83
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$5,994Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,994
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$570.69
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10,012Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+426.3%+$42,683.12
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,344Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+50.2%+$674.15
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,289.86
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$4,231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,231.13
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$270.83
Will Sevilla vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,115.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+726.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+726.4%+$379.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$989Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$1,684.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$768Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$533.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,366Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+61.3%+$2,675.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$498.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$133.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$431.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3)backed EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$638Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$638.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$9,735Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,735.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.