Token Launches · resolved market
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0ff66b151c5a8baaaa71c17f0f6b1217cfafac7e4657505cdb64fdeb01855b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 0c | 20,900$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…5e7fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed No | 2c | 5,694$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,469$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…65c8backed No | 0c | 4,451$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…4c26backed No | 5c | 4,200$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…99f9backed No | 2c | 3,468$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…bd7ebacked No | 1c | 3,296$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…57aabacked No | 1c | 3,282$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 0c | 3,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 11c | 2,804$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…23cebacked No | 0c | 2,758$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 3c | 2,663$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 2,427$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked No | 8c | 2,407$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x150f…158abacked No | 6c | 1,751$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 6c | 1,583$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 1,304$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 1,187$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 5c | 1,161$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 1,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed No | 2c | 1,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…7942backed No | 5c | 953.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 699.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 3c | 699.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 682.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…ad5cbacked No | 2c | 676.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked No | 10c | 630.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 371.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 5c | 299.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 5c | 280.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 5c | 275.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 4c | 269.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked No | 5c | 260.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 5c | 257.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…4ed7backed No | 9c | 246.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 17c | 235.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…4795backed No | 12c | 230.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…5221backed No | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 6c | 210.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…6d23backed No | 5c | 201.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed No | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 9c | 150.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…8808backed No | 9c | 129.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 9c | 110.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.