Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f803e07dc7fa80b74188b263f72559307748db57ce735cd5f66d2ef527d6b3d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $385,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $362,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $385,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0baf…409cbacked No	0c	30,510$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.51	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.17per pick	23cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x202c…2d9fbacked No	19c	20,000$3,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,719.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No	0c	12,731$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	166	2.4%4 W · 162 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f8…7febbacked Yes	68c	10,800$7,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,456	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+45%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Yes	66c	10,442$6,868 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,574.82	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+4.9wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfadc…e474backed No	1c	10,439$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	7,111$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.82	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No	3c	6,711$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.07	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+164.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No	11c	6,197$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.94	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-91.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbe…65c8backed No	0c	5,550$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac5c…d4a4backed No	2c	4,869$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1c…970abacked No	11c	4,571$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.65	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32df…2295backed No	2c	3,846$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed No	34c	3,636$1,223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,222.8	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ec3…f32bbacked No	2c	3,216$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.12	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-5.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4b17…53f1backed No	6c	3,100$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+242.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe832…0604backed No	2c	2,891$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed No	35c	2,630$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	2c	2,574$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked No	1c	2,529$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f3…d38cbacked No	4c	2,500$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+51.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed No	1c	2,473$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+4.9wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e1…98aebacked No	11c	2,355$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No	27c	2,324$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.2	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a2…20aebacked No	1c	2,288$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No	32c	2,285$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x850c…4723backed No	3c	2,173$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.44	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No	4c	2,152$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.29	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a5…3249backed Yes	74c	2,116$1,569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.52	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed No	15c	2,095$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.23	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	17c	2,074$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.53	357	12.9%46 W · 311 L	-29.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No	16c	2,038$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.96	147	32%47 W · 100 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+44%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No	4c	2,030$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.59	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes	76c	2,000$1,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes	79c	2,000$1,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed No	10c	2,000$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.4	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes	77c	2,000$1,543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.5	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+9.5wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes	68c	2,000$1,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.85	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No	1c	1,944$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	69	40.6%28 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No	14c	1,872$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.29	205	51.2%105 W · 100 L	+13.3wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed No	7c	1,754$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.58	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+4.7wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No	2c	1,752$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bf…7c67backed No	2c	1,694$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.53	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2408…1c42backed No	15c	1,588$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.21	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No	33c	1,588$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.56	141	41.8%59 W · 82 L	+8.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c7…e195backed No	1c	1,498$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…dbdcbacked No	34c	1,478$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+73%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	2c	1,449$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.15	233	3.4%8 W · 225 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed No	20c	1,307$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.11	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No	22c	1,300$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed Yes	74c	1,300$958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.5	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No	2c	1,300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2467…5be3backed No	2c	1,250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No	2c	1,200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	124	3.2%4 W · 120 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No	2c	1,196$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No	1c	1,079$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	123	4.1%5 W · 118 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc620…7a70backed No	1c	1,069$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked No	2c	1,052$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes	80c	1,005$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6252…495dbacked No	22c	1,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4438…1786backed No	6c	1,000$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	6cpaid	+594.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc00…9bd0backed No	34c	1,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9349…8d0fbacked No	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb96…c5dbbacked No	2c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No	27c	1,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.8	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda2b…c006backed Yes	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb343…46bbbacked No	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.18per pick	29cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49f8…8c04backed No	17c	991$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.07	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa53e…0009backed No	15c	969.27$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No	31c	968$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.08	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No	26c	924.08$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.01	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+13.4wins	+0.24per pick	31cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	68+0.17 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked No	33c	901.43$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No	3c	900$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	75	4%3 W · 72 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2609…d39bbacked Yes	74c	896.1$667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.44	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked No	23c	869.57$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed Yes	70c	861$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7e…ffeebacked No	30c	860$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x055d…9148backed No	1c	800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No	21c	720.97$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.41	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	+8.0wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9747…478dbacked No	14c	706.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0f…b7b0backed No	21c	702.13$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	244	2%5 W · 239 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf3…0959backed No	13c	700$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f61…cf08backed Yes	71c	698.7$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.7	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed No	30c	676$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.8	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked No	3c	670.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c6…910ebacked No	20c	654.48$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	-6.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa866…d096backed No	2c	649.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bad…4ee8backed No	15c	625$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No	25c	598.65$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.66	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes	79c	590.64$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.29	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e4…0e38backed No	34c	588.24$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x639e…bd7ebacked No	4c	552.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fd…aae9backed Yes	73c	547.73$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.73	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e1…37a7backed No	15c	534.19$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b9…57bebacked Yes	79c	530$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.3	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377d…2252backed No	28c	518.17$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.45	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc963…d98ebacked No	22c	507.5$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes	77c	506.58$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.91	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.19per pick	66cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd47b…c715backed No	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event