Token Launches · resolved market
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x638b764db5a7a4d14851e97f3717668e239088795e1fa156ac973a15911c3d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5fe…d475backed Yes | 11c | 18,000$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,652$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,342$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 36c | 4,711$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.17 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked No | 76c | 4,603$3,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…bb57backed Yes | 9c | 3,857$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 12c | 3,397$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…384dbacked No | 76c | 3,240$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36a7…1aeabacked No | 78c | 3,090$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cc…43aabacked Yes | 10c | 3,017$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…f552backed Yes | 9c | 2,754$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 2,685$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…462ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,455$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes | 15c | 2,239$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.88 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,040$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,808$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,807$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5c…7daabacked Yes | 5c | 1,677$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,587$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 1,556$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.59 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…48a6backed Yes | 7c | 1,508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,342$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…7e40backed Yes | 40c | 1,300$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,276$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,268$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.56 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,201$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 52c | 1,111$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.21 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…dfa7backed Yes | 9c | 1,091$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…e19ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,072$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.46 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…281bbacked Yes | 13c | 981.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…3dc4backed Yes | 5c | 979.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…7c67backed Yes | 22c | 972.5$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 20c | 903.94$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 810.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 800$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 800$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 7c | 742.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 701.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 16c | 654.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 10c | 638.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…33c3backed No | 64c | 628.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 68c | 627$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 10c | 616.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 14c | 600$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…4464backed Yes | 18c | 565.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…6e66backed No | 68c | 504.02$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked No | 70c | 500$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 21c | 500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 12c | 499.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…dffebacked No | 77c | 473$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed No | 73c | 422.27$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…55e1backed No | 65c | 420.08$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…1ab7backed Yes | 7c | 412.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…213abacked Yes | 11c | 406.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…ee95backed Yes | 9c | 375.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked Yes | 28c | 374.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 5c | 372.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…e7e1backed Yes | 8c | 366.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 7c | 360$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x299e…31a6backed Yes | 10c | 360$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 10c | 353.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed No | 67c | 321.97$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed Yes | 8c | 320.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…85a7backed Yes | 11c | 319.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…2151backed Yes | 6c | 316.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 72c | 314.16$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…ecabbacked No | 74c | 302$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed No | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 15c | 288.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed No | 66c | 286.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…d0aebacked No | 73c | 274.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 40c | 252.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed No | 60c | 247.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…3184backed Yes | 7c | 223.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed Yes | 14c | 223.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 78c | 219.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…54acbacked No | 76c | 204.7$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 21c | 203.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…9294backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 13c | 197.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 61c | 181.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…74bfbacked Yes | 8c | 161.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…d974backed No | 67c | 149.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…f635backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 40c | 126.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 59c | 125.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 120.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 13c | 111.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.