Token Launches · resolved market
Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ed997b25499dcd73adeb739ab4c97705e8130fe03b2e7b8b1a525cbb6437fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes | 6c | 8,416$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.61 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,301$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,100$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.27 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked Yes | 18c | 2,587$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 15c | 2,393$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…bb57backed Yes | 5c | 2,328$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,392$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,357$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,332$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 831.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…4723backed Yes | 4c | 720.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 23c | 700$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 683.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 667.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 5c | 660$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…f8a3backed Yes | 5c | 598.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 19c | 537.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 526.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 18c | 524.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 454.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 76c | 446.26$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5c…7daabacked Yes | 4c | 417.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…e19ebacked Yes | 12c | 404.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…85debacked Yes | 4c | 395.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 10c | 395.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 336.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 309.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…6e66backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 4c | 259.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…ca21backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…213abacked Yes | 8c | 191.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes | 13c | 190.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 12c | 158.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d91…6581backed Yes | 9c | 127.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 114.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed Yes | 19c | 107.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…6f64backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…4193backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.