TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x95bb…213a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+332.9%+$128.1
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.59
Trae Young: Points O/U 13.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.24
Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$27.36
Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$36.5
Celtics vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$41.92
Spread: Pistons (-13.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$33.25
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$153.04
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24.26
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+88.7%+$38.02
Ben Sheppard: Points O/U 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+82.6%+$82.58
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Pelicans vs. Hornetsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$63.76
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$47.49
Heat vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.95
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+50.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+246.6%+$295.93
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.15
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.99
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+741.3%+$304.58
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+425.1%+$254.37
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+294%+$121.97
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+240.4%+$88.96
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+225.8%+$90.32
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+181%+$173.86
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+297.7%+$178.6
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100.65
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$89.43
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$45.16
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$23
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Open Sud de France: Pedro Martinez vs Adrian Mannarinobacked Martinez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Djokovic (+1.5)backed Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$61.4
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5)backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$17.24
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.91
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5backed Over 4.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$29.12
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+117.4%+$58.7
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+143.9%+$71.95
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+539.1%+$158.76
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovicbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Minaur (+2.5)backed Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$49.64
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$22.26
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tienbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Zverev vs. Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+58.7%+$10.96
All 15 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$59.6
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$46.96
Will Real Oviedo vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+88.7%+$44.34
Will Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+170.3%+$34.05
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$58.46
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Will Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+222.6%+$55.65
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$20.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$46.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.