TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, Atalanta BC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$604,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,531 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf19d…276fbacked FC Bayern München49c100,231$48,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,519.952360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Atalanta BC51c99,417$50,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,618.463641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Atalanta BC52c70,000$36,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,399.943941%16 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked FC Bayern München49c51,066$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,066.333652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d30…a42dbacked Atalanta BC50c47,010$23,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,504.92330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Atalanta BC51c28,048$14,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,203.086657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed FC Bayern München50c25,800$12,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,981.694100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50e4…1cedbacked FC Bayern München49c20,203$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,203.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+40.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Atalanta BC51c13,028$6,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,709.296643.9%29 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked FC Bayern München49c10,652$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,432.611346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed FC Bayern München49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.081145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a37…f839backed Atalanta BC0c10,004$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Atalanta BC51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.982040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Atalanta BC51c6,190$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,156.832254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked FC Bayern München48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.9628543.9%125 W · 160 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed FC Bayern München50c4,899$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.153935.9%14 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Atalanta BC51c4,563$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.826047.7%124 W · 136 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed FC Bayern München49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.637145.1%32 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked FC Bayern München50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00013548.9%66 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed FC Bayern München49c3,923$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.596852.9%36 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Atalanta BC50c3,893$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.0738748.3%187 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed FC Bayern München48c3,784$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.583839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Atalanta BC52c3,643$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.134342.3%145 W · 198 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Atalanta BC51c3,396$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.6959441.8%248 W · 346 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b7c…3c87backed FC Bayern München49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.221258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed FC Bayern München48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5605550.9%28 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed FC Bayern München50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5004951%25 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7695…9cedbacked FC Bayern München49c3,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58c…4dffbacked FC Bayern München49c2,743$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.864100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…5104backed FC Bayern München56c2,624$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.481553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed FC Bayern München48c2,600$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Atalanta BC50c2,600$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30015252%79 W · 73 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1263…fddcbacked FC Bayern München53c2,500$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1702272.7%16 W · 6 L+7.7wins+0.35per pick38cpaid+106.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Atalanta BC51c2,500$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.9613644.1%60 W · 76 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed FC Bayern München50c2,395$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.964573.3%33 W · 12 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München54c2,273$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.741,95944.1%863 W · 1,096 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Atalanta BC50c2,157$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.931,48740.3%599 W · 888 L-7.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Atalanta BC48c2,065$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed FC Bayern München49c2,050$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.59757.7%56 W · 41 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked FC Bayern München49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.821050%5 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+65.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Atalanta BC51c1,969$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.672825%7 W · 21 L-7.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked FC Bayern München52c1,544$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.122552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München63c1,514$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.6923637.3%88 W · 148 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed FC Bayern München52c1,486$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.45580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked FC Bayern München49c1,429$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa79…f645backed FC Bayern München50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7003625%9 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Atalanta BC50c1,251$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.5829445.9%135 W · 159 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4f…4fe4backed FC Bayern München50c1,140$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+122%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked FC Bayern München49c1,140$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.5513245.5%60 W · 72 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Atalanta BC51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56144955.7%250 W · 199 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Atalanta BC50c1,049$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.475927.1%16 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked FC Bayern München49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.412740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed FC Bayern München49c1,006$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.331963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed FC Bayern München49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked FC Bayern München48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed FC Bayern München49c969.39$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.39475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+61.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Atalanta BC52c882.69$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked FC Bayern München50c876.73$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.471656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed FC Bayern München49c869.9$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.351070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed FC Bayern München58c862.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.412853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed FC Bayern München50c850$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4253345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa73…96cabacked FC Bayern München49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed FC Bayern München50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4004957.1%28 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed FC Bayern München49c793.88$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.046331.7%20 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked FC Bayern München48c762$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.242860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Bayern München50c757.67$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.0748947.6%233 W · 256 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked FC Bayern München50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35013349.6%66 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked FC Bayern München49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3575152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30020639.3%81 W · 125 L+25.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb3d0…d2f0backed Atalanta BC50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e3…68c1backed FC Bayern München50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed FC Bayern München48c583.33$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.333164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Atalanta BC47c567.91$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda46…e6e3backed FC Bayern München49c510.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.22045%9 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+50.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed FC Bayern München48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26020644.7%92 W · 114 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e55…d06cbacked Atalanta BC52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0893…c760backed FC Bayern München49c464.6$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked FC Bayern München52c443.17$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1722054.1%119 W · 101 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed FC Bayern München49c410.02$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.113050%15 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked FC Bayern München49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.162650%13 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd1…cfb5backed FC Bayern München50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+57.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked FC Bayern München49c393.58$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.739841.8%41 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Atalanta BC51c367.38$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3612935.7%46 W · 83 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0478…3faabacked Atalanta BC51c355$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0570%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked FC Bayern München59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.984055%22 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed FC Bayern München48c333.33$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.333164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed FC Bayern München49c318.37$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.373458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked FC Bayern München63c317.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.642462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked FC Bayern München49c307.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81560%9 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0756…38c9backed FC Bayern München49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.122552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95bb…213abacked FC Bayern München49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed FC Bayern München49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1213349.6%66 W · 67 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8cb…1f21backed FC Bayern München50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+150.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Bayern München55c299.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13522647.3%107 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed FC Bayern München50c299.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.75988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick54cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe2b…8fe6backed FC Bayern München50c296.14$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d44…2f97backed Atalanta BC53c283.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked FC Bayern München50c273$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.52650%13 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed Atalanta BC52c269.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed FC Bayern München50c265$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2329350.5%148 W · 145 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.