TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xda46…e6e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 57 out of 100; worst La Liga at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$6,631Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,631.09
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+168.1%+$840.55
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,167.61
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.28
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. Spain: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
France vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$146.74
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$158.33
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$191.55
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$184.29
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$231.11
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$240.43
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$62.75
Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Breel Embolo: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+400%+$100
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+50.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$2,175
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$266
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+136.2%+$136.17
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)backed Club Atlético de Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12.77
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$260.2
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$187.41
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$244.12
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$670
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+188%+$187.97
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+213.4%+$106.7
All 20 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)backed SSC Napoli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.89
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$97.37
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Penguinsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$41.39
Lightning vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Magicbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$122.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.