Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9746f0a2c13256e470fb85718c4e60071c199fc39b72cfc1d8dc961179f2f203

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Paris Saint-Germain FCof Paris Saint-Germain FC, Chelsea FC
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,323 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x78bc…2585backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	2,500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,099.59	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	1,500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,260	219	38.4%84 W · 135 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	80c	1,384$1,107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.85	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+20.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	22c	1,041$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$812.68	132	45.5%60 W · 72 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	19c	789.47$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.47	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Chelsea FC	38c	657.89$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chelsea FC	5c	640.59$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.03	1,487	40.3%599 W · 888 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	632.95$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.95	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	614.88$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.48	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC	73c	595.07$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.68	1,959	44.1%863 W · 1,096 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Chelsea FC	38c	526.32$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Chelsea FC	41c	494.11$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	364.71$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.71	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Chelsea FC	70c	343.42$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.39	88	47.7%42 W · 46 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	18c	300$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0b…3282backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	294.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.71	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+3.5wins	+0.18per pick	29cpaid	+73.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3766…e05abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	294.12$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.12	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+160.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda46…e6e3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	294.12$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.12	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.14per pick	31cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	18c	293.28$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.49	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	24c	205.31$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.31	97	39.2%38 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	200$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	+11.3wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	+60.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	61c	164.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.14	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	19c	158.47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.47	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	150$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.5	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	147.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.06	77	28.6%22 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Chelsea FC	39c	145.64$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	50	52%26 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	145$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.35	293	50.5%148 W · 145 L	+13.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb58…4acebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	17c	117.65$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.65	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	18c	100$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	115	47%54 W · 61 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Chelsea FC	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	194	55.7%108 W · 86 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Chelsea FC	38c	99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.76	142	20.4%29 W · 113 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	90.36$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.9	163	27%44 W · 119 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Chelsea FC	33c	86.64$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc52e…0a1cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	27c	78.04$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.04	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	50c	67.94$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.26	236	37.3%88 W · 148 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Chelsea FC	61c	67.14$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	99	53.5%53 W · 46 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…b8c3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	62.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+6.3wins	+0.20per pick	35cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Chelsea FC	44c	48.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	209	16.7%35 W · 174 L	-36.8wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Chelsea FC	80c	46$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.41per pick	61cpaid	-71%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	62c	42.96$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.21	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Chelsea FC	40c	39.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	150	38.7%58 W · 92 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	58c	38.17$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.94	223	56.1%125 W · 98 L	+13.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Chelsea FC	40c	37.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)this page
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event