Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3bdcf513eaf5e5f1957c5085647e25c025368fec9b84dbe4ae7a657c4b183b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,723 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 2,114$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.72 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 914.49$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.06 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…72c0backed Yes | 75c | 682.05$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…e6e3backed Yes | 58c | 545.29$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 515.93$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 34c | 447.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 30c | 376.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 39c | 232.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 67c | 193.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Yes | 75c | 188.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 20c | 180.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…54bdbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Yes | 63c | 142.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 41c | 123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 73c | 121.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 59c | 116.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 63c | 109.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…1d90backed Yes | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Yes | 59c | 83.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…468cbacked No | 40c | 76.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 41c | 66.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -8.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 45c | 55.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked No | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed No | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…ebf8backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 52c | 39.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…57b2backed Yes | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…edfabacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 31.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Yes | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Yes | 63c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…5b0fbacked Yes | 62c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.