Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10acc67d32a789430a8b106c9a1849935342a481f8d479913aef82be56726b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,662 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 3,027$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 2,468$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.58 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 47c | 2,464$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.08 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 34c | 898.71$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.38 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 18c | 497.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 16c | 305.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 276.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 64c | 251.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…66f7backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 57c | 176.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 33c | 149.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked Under | 70c | 142.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Over | 30c | 120.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 44c | 112.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 48c | 103.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 51c | 99.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 59c | 97.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 240 | 49.2%118 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…8668backed Under | 50c | 74.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 44c | 69.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 28c | 67.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 33c | 58.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…ebf8backed Over | 27c | 57.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Under | 76c | 52.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 56c | 52.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 29c | 37.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 54c | 28.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…2925backed Over | 58c | 17.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.