Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b3c06733b2c5174ee9204132db4b3bc0e934fedcc9d7bcbc25346f6d70edc1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,482 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 2,353$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.59 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 61c | 1,800$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under | 48c | 1,504$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 55c | 650.61$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.61 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 30c | 615.97$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 596.03$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.74 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 345.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 15c | 329$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 40c | 195.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 49c | 188.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…caeebacked Under | 41c | 187.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 56c | 185.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 8c | 174.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 55c | 165.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…7d5bbacked Under | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 66c | 142.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 55c | 130.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 55c | 130.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 44c | 107.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 105.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Over | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…cb27backed Over | 55c | 90.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 86.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 50c | 80.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 45c | 60.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…9144backed Over | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 55c | 38.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 64c | 37.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 37.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…4bc1backed Over | 55c | 31.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 46c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 65c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.