Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508f0d2f3067acd7e1a6c2a263104e2dfb2ec4d89d2324f6b29346802e492a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Shakhtar Donetskof KKS Lech Poznań, FK Shakhtar Donetsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,698 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 49c | 3,167$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed KKS Lech Poznań | 46c | 2,803$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.01 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 43c | 2,782$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed KKS Lech Poznań | 65c | 1,585$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 21c | 1,171$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.27 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed KKS Lech Poznań | 54c | 906.24$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.37 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…a50ebacked KKS Lech Poznań | 14c | 641$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…e6e3backed KKS Lech Poznań | 60c | 323.33$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 48c | 310.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed KKS Lech Poznań | 29c | 300.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed KKS Lech Poznań | 50c | 269.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 74c | 202.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 65c | 140.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 26c | 139.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 134.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…677fbacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 38c | 76.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…8240backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 75c | 59.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed KKS Lech Poznań | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed KKS Lech Poznań | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 54c | 36.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 70c | 29.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed KKS Lech Poznań | 63c | 29.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…ebf8backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 77c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…ce1bbacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…e71fbacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 78c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.