Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f1bef2856a86dc341ee2df08489f2e7e1d0525532d562bfdc0b5c25c008387b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,193 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bb7…9b8abacked Over | 74c | 639.5$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b5…b505backed Under | 26c | 639.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 574.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…43f7backed Over | 75c | 446$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…572bbacked Under | 25c | 446$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 171.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 20c | 76.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 79c | 63.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 22c | 62.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 79c | 59.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 54.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 21c | 50.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 50.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…849cbacked Under | 29c | 47.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 78c | 41.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 79c | 31.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…678cbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702d…4651backed Over | 79c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…2c12backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.