Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d251565bff2637c6441fb40aef62e3c0ca4077ea2052c3a0f2b26880405577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,979 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 1c | 126,545$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 1c | 49,191$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 11,758$7,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,213.67 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 50c | 5,037$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.12 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 4,406$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 1,862$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.46 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…bca4backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 631.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 79c | 630$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.06 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 75c | 466$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 36c | 465.94$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…e6e3backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 328.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 23c | 319$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 6c | 315$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8745backed Yes | 24c | 241.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 184.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 57c | 182.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 62c | 172.02$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…18d2backed Yes | 29c | 169.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 53c | 158$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…39c8backed Yes | 71c | 138.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 24c | 119.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 104.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 49c | 99.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 52c | 94.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 23c | 81.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 55c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 24c | 71.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 32c | 69.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 51c | 65.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 26c | 62.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 62.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 58c | 61.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 60.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 60.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…5e5fbacked Yes | 24c | 49.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 26c | 43.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 36c | 41.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 57c | 37.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 47c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 63c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 15.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-03-19?No won
- Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.