Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-03-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d1617ce6c3af186aba839c977d3a9dd56ba03fe9fcfbf6a338be040960290f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,716 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 7c | 6,005$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.86 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Yes | 3c | 4,520$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 4,100$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 5c | 2,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…54bdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,042$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…bca4backed Yes | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 3c | 1,351$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 10c | 1,260$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 5c | 979.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Yes | 7c | 951.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…8513backed Yes | 14c | 711.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 3c | 682.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 2c | 668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 15c | 552.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Yes | 13c | 312.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 16c | 301.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8745backed Yes | 18c | 237.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc2…df9ebacked Yes | 16c | 215.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Yes | 12c | 212$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…cf48backed Yes | 10c | 177.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 17c | 173.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 7c | 168.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…82edbacked Yes | 15c | 168.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 15c | 167.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 14c | 165.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…cf99backed Yes | 10c | 138.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3710backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 15c | 119.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9185…aee8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 85.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-03-19?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.