Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7434b22007745d99095c102119fdb6b975d34869212e9dda4c6c5c48db0683a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,527,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,763,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,527,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 740 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 325,964$12,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,265.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 6c | 270,135$15,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,751.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 3c | 191,169$6,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,039.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 3c | 187,185$4,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 2c | 136,664$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 1c | 130,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 6c | 129,121$8,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,301.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 124,738$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…2c0dbacked Yes | 2c | 112,069$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +916.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 4c | 110,643$4,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,242.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 2c | 99,859$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 84,418$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…6162backed Yes | 1c | 82,081$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 5c | 80,977$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 7cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 80,003$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 3c | 79,263$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.74 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 6c | 77,604$4,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,505.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf471…f666backed Yes | 1c | 72,617$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 3c | 72,533$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.45 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…f7a2backed Yes | 2c | 70,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 3c | 66,135$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.49 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 2c | 59,979$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +239.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…fe31backed Yes | 7c | 57,042$3,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 8c | 54,117$4,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,564.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 6c | 52,841$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 23c | 52,235$12,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…bd31backed Yes | 5c | 45,420$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +689.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 3c | 44,102$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 3c | 43,526$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…0616backed Yes | 0c | 41,530$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…ec62backed Yes | 4c | 40,296$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 5c | 40,065$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 2c | 39,303$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…969bbacked Yes | 3c | 36,674$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +381.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fc…0b5ebacked Yes | 6c | 31,623$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 30,987$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.09 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 78c | 29,921$23,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,444.19 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 4c | 29,785$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +232.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked Yes | 5c | 28,903$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…e4dbbacked Yes | 3c | 28,601$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…7e3fbacked Yes | 4c | 27,261$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 7c | 27,257$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 17cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 27,223$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.98 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…a2d3backed Yes | 5c | 25,627$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…18e3backed Yes | 8c | 25,064$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 24,783$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.99 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 23,721$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.64per pick | 11cpaid | +706%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…4604backed Yes | 6c | 22,311$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…4cdebacked Yes | 7c | 21,931$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 3c | 21,482$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…4bb3backed Yes | 2c | 20,126$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…af5dbacked Yes | 3c | 20,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 3c | 19,857$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,900$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 2c | 18,761$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 8c | 18,016$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 17,914$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.86 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…c03dbacked Yes | 3c | 17,565$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…c623backed Yes | 6c | 17,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 1c | 16,741$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…e5eabacked Yes | 0c | 16,520$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 16,448$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.17 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 5c | 16,359$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.33 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 16,243$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.17 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…85fabacked Yes | 0c | 16,181$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 2c | 16,034$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.81 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0f…6d7bbacked Yes | 5c | 15,258$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 10cpaid | +413.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…0ed8backed Yes | 7c | 15,167$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…cbb7backed Yes | 2c | 15,033$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 8c | 14,779$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 4c | 14,152$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…7a6dbacked Yes | 9c | 12,696$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 4c | 11,604$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 3c | 11,551$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Yes | 5c | 11,476$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 8cpaid | +602.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…de5cbacked Yes | 4c | 11,186$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 6c | 11,180$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.32 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,850$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed Yes | 5c | 10,793$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 6c | 10,576$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…d6bdbacked Yes | 2c | 10,469$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 1c | 10,337$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +557.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 1c | 10,104$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 8c | 10,093$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…e765backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +429.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9173…bed3backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…4a53backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 10c | 9,940$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 9,880$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 9,823$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.67 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…9d68backed Yes | 2c | 9,607$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…5395backed Yes | 5c | 9,599$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 2c | 9,586$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 9,183$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 2c | 9,135$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 9,073$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.03 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 3c | 8,942$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +651.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 8,866$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.