Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f3271096e7cd0bfd48f2e573b0869cd3953bf3e4a6329f03dc17067551d142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,787 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 2,918$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 308.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…5ee1backed Yes | 22c | 216.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed Yes | 19c | 198.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d35…df71backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 146.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…e6e3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 123.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 119.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Yes | 21c | 106.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 99.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 26c | 96.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 76c | 80.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…8668backed Yes | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 60.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 25c | 59.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 22c | 47.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…16e2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-19?No won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-03-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.