Serie A · resolved market

Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52219b4165c589da3c03423b728a6302a3ecce6db2075b2e572ff0bbf526587b

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cagliari Calcioof SSC Napoli, Cagliari Calcio
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,763 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio	65c	8,740$5,668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,071.67	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked SSC Napoli	28c	5,974$1,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696.47	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cagliari Calcio	71c	3,622$2,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,039.47	331	48.6%161 W · 170 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed SSC Napoli	40c	2,025$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.72	127	31.5%40 W · 87 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Cagliari Calcio	73c	2,008$1,466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.32	142	49.3%70 W · 72 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed SSC Napoli	27c	1,839$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.55	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cagliari Calcio	53c	1,816$954 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$861.41	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked SSC Napoli	28c	1,511$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.42	385	47.8%184 W · 201 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed SSC Napoli	33c	1,059$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.35	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Cagliari Calcio	72c	999.99$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed SSC Napoli	28c	999.96$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.99	423	47.8%202 W · 221 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…12cebacked SSC Napoli	21c	858.01$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.18	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked SSC Napoli	41c	725.63$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.46	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cagliari Calcio	72c	697.16$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.22	985	44.9%442 W · 543 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked SSC Napoli	28c	525.75$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.93	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf516…79a0backed SSC Napoli	38c	521.98$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.35	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed SSC Napoli	39c	332.67$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.22	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Cagliari Calcio	70c	312.98$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.9	372	50.5%188 W · 184 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Cagliari Calcio	70c	218.48$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.54	75	58.7%44 W · 31 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed SSC Napoli	46c	215.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.13	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-3.8wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-58%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Cagliari Calcio	72c	213.85$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.88	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed SSC Napoli	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cagliari Calcio	47c	198.26$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.08	346	43.4%150 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked SSC Napoli	53c	187.03$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.13	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c15…b8e1backed SSC Napoli	27c	175.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed SSC Napoli	35c	170.06$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.52	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2807…27d5backed SSC Napoli	29c	160.9$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.66	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…97b6backed SSC Napoli	28c	139.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.37per pick	38cpaid	+122.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78d8…cffcbacked SSC Napoli	41c	120.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.58	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed SSC Napoli	41c	118.5$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.59	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed SSC Napoli	27c	114.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	460	47.4%218 W · 242 L	+10.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed SSC Napoli	27c	110.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed SSC Napoli	28c	106.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	59	39%23 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4313…306abacked SSC Napoli	28c	106.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e78…ccd1backed SSC Napoli	28c	105.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked SSC Napoli	29c	102.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5e…4e0cbacked SSC Napoli	29c	100.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.41	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked SSC Napoli	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	124	22.6%28 W · 96 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed SSC Napoli	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+6.2wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed SSC Napoli	28c	99.29$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	111	27%30 W · 81 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed SSC Napoli	27c	84.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	491	37.5%184 W · 307 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed SSC Napoli	31c	83.69$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	162	19.1%31 W · 131 L	-10.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d4b…eedfbacked SSC Napoli	40c	81.31$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.52	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	59cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Cagliari Calcio	74c	80.42$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	145	53.1%77 W · 68 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba8…cdb3backed Cagliari Calcio	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed SSC Napoli	30c	79.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Cagliari Calcio	71c	79$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	134	45.5%61 W · 73 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed SSC Napoli	53c	74.81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.65	115	47.8%55 W · 60 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1243…2a64backed SSC Napoli	29c	71.89$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked SSC Napoli	29c	68.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed SSC Napoli	29c	68.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31bb…3dbabacked SSC Napoli	28c	63.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda46…e6e3backed SSC Napoli	28c	53.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Cagliari Calcio	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	81	58%47 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked SSC Napoli	53c	46.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0112…4fe9backed SSC Napoli	32c	46.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4293…792fbacked SSC Napoli	32c	46.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed SSC Napoli	33c	40.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	111	36.9%41 W · 70 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Cagliari Calcio	68c	40.38$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.77	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Cagliari Calcio	74c	39.52$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.27	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecf…caf2backed SSC Napoli	33c	38.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b79…e5d8backed SSC Napoli	53c	37.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Cagliari Calcio	72c	34.48$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.65	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked SSC Napoli	44c	31.54$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+6.8wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Cagliari Calcio	71c	31.21$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Cagliari Calcio	66c	27.6$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	103	53.4%55 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x94d4…a896backed SSC Napoli	52c	27.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	20	60%12 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b4…01fdbacked Cagliari Calcio	72c	26.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.34	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed SSC Napoli	42c	25.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…d370backed Cagliari Calcio	74c	24.16$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.28	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.27per pick	46cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabdd…4f81backed SSC Napoli	53c	22.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Cagliari Calcio	71c	22.03$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.38	232	44%102 W · 130 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Cagliari Calcio	68c	17.53$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9856…7014backed Cagliari Calcio	72c	13.9$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.89	31	80.6%25 W · 6 L	+6.5wins	+0.21per pick	60cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)this page
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Under won
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event