Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4989bf9e4d0282231603a9d1d44de0acb24eb6fd84d5f4290145e3046c03ddac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,688 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 15c | 1,327$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 19c | 1,249$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 19c | 899.18$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.84 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 25c | 800$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 80c | 626.18$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 19c | 523.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 20c | 497.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccd…8cf0backed Under | 77c | 308.39$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…b584backed Over | 23c | 306.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 80c | 269.38$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 20c | 203.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…5dedbacked Under | 76c | 172.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…d1fabacked Over | 24c | 171.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…c70bbacked Over | 32c | 128.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 21c | 97.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Over | 32c | 93.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…8297backed Over | 20c | 73.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 18c | 55.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 79c | 16.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Under | 78c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.