La Liga · resolved market
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60409ca1bbcd882d671fc1a1bdcac0b16fc9b57acb88beea4988965999c1d8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,798 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 51c | 995.87$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.89 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 49c | 678.02$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed No | 69c | 360.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0124backed No | 79c | 306.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 20c | 252.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…22ebbacked No | 49c | 156.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 53c | 125.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 51c | 110.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…c3a7backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…46d6backed Yes | 52c | 96.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 50c | 80.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…e6e3backed No | 54c | 75.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 46c | 66.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 48c | 55.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5daa…df63backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Yes | 54c | 45.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed No | 49c | 41.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…01dfbacked No | 49c | 41.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 46c | 31.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…842bbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 55c | 25.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…4415backed Yes | 56c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Alexander Sorloth: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Federico Valverde: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Julian Alvarez: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.