TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,403,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,637,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,403,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 10,114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf031…c80cbacked No40c1,517,756$612,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612,577.9233538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4e…0232backed Yes59c1,101,681$654,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447,305.913354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c5…cbd0backed No44c974,687$430,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430,975.792548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No40c775,233$309,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,618.3574752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes60c644,221$388,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255,901.148,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No37c630,289$230,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230,504.0856541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…7320backed No41c612,393$249,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249,550.111758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No42c525,731$219,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219,017.651,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee8…89debacked No40c431,759$172,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172,670.545942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No43c430,135$184,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,338.94,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes60c335,555$201,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,191.6242345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x580d…eb6dbacked Yes60c309,955$187,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,757.178063.8%51 W · 29 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes60c281,011$167,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,106.818740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ac…f764backed Yes59c274,745$162,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,645.586543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No28c272,451$75,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,832.8825038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Yes61c270,497$165,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,493.93441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a6…9458backed Yes60c249,999$149,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,999.594753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked Yes61c249,811$151,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,675.198932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4f…e5f3backed No41c242,540$100,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,032.471952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes55c218,211$120,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,649.4332031.6%101 W · 219 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed No39c200,000$78,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,25022348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Yes60c177,777$105,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,999.698246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No40c169,783$68,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,521.316835.1%59 W · 109 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Yes61c160,121$97,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,647.262864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed No40c134,641$54,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,226.7477152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed Yes60c133,376$79,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,714.051533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x882f…a8c0backed No40c132,500$53,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,356.015366%35 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Yes60c130,000$78,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,999.9753448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x620d…c67fbacked Yes55c127,892$70,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,892.141136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Yes54c127,254$68,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,453.4411642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Yes59c127,119$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,118.643925.6%10 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes61c126,026$76,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,420.913,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No28c124,711$35,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,369.5416244.4%72 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked No39c119,998$46,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,799.063046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes60c119,470$71,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,618.3329916.7%50 W · 249 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a18…f4a9backed Yes60c118,795$70,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,094.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Yes60c118,209$70,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,871.6317452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes62c111,061$68,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,467.479231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No40c103,693$41,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,232.051,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Yes58c103,162$60,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,162.526320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdac7…6d53backed Yes59c100,000$58,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,250.179131.9%29 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Yes60c100,000$59,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,50014343.4%62 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No39c93,343$36,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,541.4129952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Yes69c91,275$62,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,673.237223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes64c89,484$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,484.1532429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb61b…8a06backed Yes59c86,237$51,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,141.585959.3%35 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No30c83,939$25,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,358.4827039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes59c83,641$49,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,288.5665835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a6…627bbacked Yes60c83,287$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,286.6311645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No42c81,596$34,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,009.0736939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes77c81,509$62,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,66231945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb376…a463backed No40c81,358$32,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,497.077343.8%32 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes60c77,564$46,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,950.771,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe2…56e9backed Yes61c75,793$46,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,559.351040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fab…232fbacked No39c75,070$29,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,562.963534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d5…9e9fbacked No39c70,000$27,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,649.853748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb451…d7b3backed No40c67,157$27,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,030.771346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e2…f48fbacked Yes59c65,904$39,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,691.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes62c64,003$39,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,461.7817842.7%76 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes61c63,624$38,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,071.365322.6%12 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked No40c62,747$24,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,968.8933549%164 W · 171 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked No36c62,509$22,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,534.5323540.4%95 W · 140 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…0a1ebacked Yes60c61,930$36,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,081.811154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…18e7backed No44c61,900$27,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,355.0413037.7%49 W · 81 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No49c61,721$30,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,541.479943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3f…e87cbacked Yes60c57,557$34,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,046.842532%8 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No33c54,861$18,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,204.942,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No40c53,343$21,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,073.842,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Yes60c52,705$31,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,08217447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ba…afeabacked No40c52,348$21,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,183.1215337.3%57 W · 96 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d2…731dbacked No40c51,149$20,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,459.87343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c5…1e01backed Yes60c50,170$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,170.113243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Yes60c50,028$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,028.492040%8 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked No39c49,932$19,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,598.4312536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No40c46,979$18,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,726.793,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked No39c45,049$17,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,569.874252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No18c44,886$8,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,168.8614139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x225b…9a83backed No39c44,097$17,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,357.0729333.8%99 W · 194 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No40c43,915$17,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,590.72,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x794d…53c8backed Yes58c42,840$25,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,791.385240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No40c42,832$17,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,116.33,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d98…2d02backed Yes60c41,667$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,666.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Yes60c41,314$24,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,613.6713036.2%47 W · 83 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af7…4c89backed Yes60c41,097$24,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,541.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed No40c40,000$15,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,949.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa551…e050backed Yes55c39,277$21,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,674.454100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+204.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x119b…ac3ebacked Yes59c39,153$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,153.498944.9%40 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd7…401fbacked Yes45c38,731$17,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,317.35862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c58…a5a1backed Yes60c38,347$22,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,522.282520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Yes60c37,638$22,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,234.799846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b0f…4633backed Yes59c37,207$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,207.045158.8%30 W · 21 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c32…3f1cbacked Yes60c36,775$21,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,776.4924939%97 W · 152 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f7…5541backed No56c36,324$20,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,270.4210544.8%47 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75f…412bbacked No40c36,302$14,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,458.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44f…7842backed No41c35,330$14,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,485.32850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No40c35,082$14,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,033.871,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed No40c34,912$13,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,879.8350243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca02…76d3backed No39c33,998$13,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,314.677835.9%28 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c08…5c69backed No41c33,626$13,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,654.3811552.2%60 W · 55 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed No40c33,545$13,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,320.366953.6%37 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.