TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Oilers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Oilers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$970,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $970,180 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Oilers45c382,119$171,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,726.2751550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Lightning55c340,939$187,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,609.7816442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf195…8057backed Lightning56c205,164$114,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,272.035352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Oilers44c150,000$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,999.8367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Lightning55c140,386$77,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,571.9522443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Oilers44c80,000$35,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,20024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Lightning56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,80048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Oilers44c19,912$8,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,761.1340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Oilers37c18,139$6,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.0527448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers44c12,500$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,549.971,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Lightning55c11,230$6,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.5730348.8%148 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Oilers44c10,117$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.851,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Oilers45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Oilers44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Oilers0c9,501$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0113437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning56c8,000$4,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,54061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Lightning56c7,343$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,230.864553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Oilers45c6,755$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.7436748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Oilers44c6,700$2,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,947.9850049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Lightning55c6,690$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.55149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Oilers46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76010145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Oilers45c5,797$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.391,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb148…9355backed Lightning55c5,318$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9989547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Oilers45c4,523$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning59c4,500$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…9c40backed Lightning56c4,500$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Oilers45c4,444$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Oilers21c4,176$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.7826849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Oilers45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Oilers46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Oilers9c3,670$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327270%0 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Oilers45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Oilers45c3,498$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.0227850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oilers44c3,333$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.5291945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Oilers45c3,209$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lightning56c3,089$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.2932151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning57c3,044$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.221755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Oilers45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers45c2,700$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.7391653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Oilers45c2,554$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.131,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Lightning56c2,514$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.2916843.5%73 W · 95 L-14.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Oilers45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning55c2,250$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.4232251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7b…4c93backed Oilers45c2,223$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Oilers45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Oilers21c2,118$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.716447%77 W · 87 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning55c2,106$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.181,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oilers18c2,102$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.242,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Oilers45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Oilers44c1,951$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.6659450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Oilers44c1,820$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Lightning74c1,818$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.187949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Oilers24c1,780$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.1189636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Oilers48c1,734$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.537244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Lightning75c1,704$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Oilers12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oilers43c1,650$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.991,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Lightning55c1,600$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.9962346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Oilers44c1,477$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65021849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Oilers45c1,434$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.8461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…b282backed Lightning40c1,402$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.581442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe8…6d01backed Lightning55c1,379$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.641450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Oilers20c1,296$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9511950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Lightning57c1,230$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.2914654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ddd…ccbdbacked Oilers2c1,218$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Oilers43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.993345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Oilers44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x231a…a82fbacked Oilers28c1,074$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Oilers37c1,061$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.423,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Oilers45c1,043$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.3526551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Oilers45c1,042$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4692356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Lightning52c1,035$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.1742847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Oilers43c1,035$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.051,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Oilers45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.154047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oilers45c975.43$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.512,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d5…59e2backed Oilers19c963.66$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Oilers13c918.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.558060%48 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning55c910$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.522352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Oilers44c901.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.181,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Oilers45c888.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007648.7%37 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1b…5afdbacked Lightning57c876.38$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.3815053.3%80 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Oilers33c876.09$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.2533234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Oilers46c869.57$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Oilers46c869.57$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fb…1f65backed Oilers36c846.45$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.566640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bd…20e9backed Oilers45c815.05$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.776857.4%39 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning66c801.12$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.1657157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb388…3e65backed Lightning56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Lightning57c799.54$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.075644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Lightning55c750$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning72c736.78$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.682,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab2…aa17backed Oilers45c720$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x407b…e0fabacked Lightning55c710$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.51250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf756…7d3abacked Oilers46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdee6…0319backed Oilers46c698.5$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.311540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Oilers45c686.34$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.8545751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…d897backed Oilers45c670$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.